Bush set to slip as US voters go to the polls

Republicans and Democrats made a final push for votes yesterday in advance of crucial mid-term elections today, which could transform…

Republicans and Democrats made a final push for votes yesterday in advance of crucial mid-term elections today, which could transform the American political landscape during president George Bush's final two years in office, writes Denis Staunton in Washington.

With polls pointing to big gains for Democrats, both parties focused on a handful of states and a few dozen congressional districts that will determine who controls Congress. Democrats are confident of winning a majority in the House of Representatives but Republicans have gained ground in some Senate races in recent days, dampening Democratic hopes of winning control of both chambers.

Mr Bush campaigned in Florida, Arkansas, and his home state of Texas yesterday but the president received a snub from the Republican candidate for governor in Florida, who stayed away from a 10,000-strong rally that Mr Bush addressed.

A CNN poll yesterday gave Democrats a 20-point lead nationally but Republicans drew heart from a Pew Research Centre poll that put them just four points behind.

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In a memo to volunteers yesterday, Republican National Committee chairman Ken Mehlman said the party had contacted 27 million voters in recent days and was closing the gap with Democrats.

"New polls say our party is heading into election day with strong momentum," he said.

Republicans hope that core supporters and independent voters will return to the party out of concern over terrorism and the fear that a Democratic-controlled Congress will raise taxes. Polls show Republican voters have become more highly motivated in recent days and that a growing number plan to turn out today to prevent Democrats winning control of Congress.

Rahm Emanuel, chairman of the Democratic campaign for the House, yesterday played down the last-minute Republican surge.

"I think there is a lot of energy on the Democratic side. It was inevitable that the Republicans on their side would start to come back a little. But, from early indications from our side, our field operation, I feel good about it," he said.

All 435 House of Representatives seats and one-third of the Senate's 100 seats are up for election today, and 36 states have elections for governor. Voters will also decide the fate of dozens of ballot initiatives on issues ranging from gay marriage to smoking bans and the minimum wage.

Democrats need to gain 15 seats to win a majority in the House of Representatives and must pick up six Senate seats for a majority there. Most political analysts expect the Democrats to gain at least 20 seats in the House but winning a majority in the Senate will prove more difficult.

Republicans have all but given up hope of retaining Senate seats in Ohio and Pennsylvania and are also likely to lose seats in Rhode Island and Montana. The two best remaining prospects for Democrats are in Missouri and Virginia, where polls show Republican incumbents virtually tied with their Democratic challengers.

Both parties are bombarding voters in closely contested districts with phone calls and television advertising, with negative portrayals of the opposing candidate.

Now most voters have made up their minds how to vote, the key to the election's outcome will be voter turnout, where Republicans have traditionally enjoyed an advantage.

After a campaign dominated by discontent over the Iraq war and Mr Bush's unpopularity, Republicans hope to maximise their vote by "micro-targeting" voters in key races with tailor-made political messages. Democrats, on the other hand, hope to ride a national wave of discontent with the Iraq war, the president and the Republican-controlled Congress, which has been plagued by financial and personal scandals.