A vote-by-vote review of untallied ballots in the 2000 Florida election shows President Mr George W. Bush would have won.
But rival Mr Al Gore might have reversed the outcome had he secured a complete statewide recount.
Mr Bush eventually won Florida, and therefore the White House, by 537 votes out of more than six million cast.
Almost a year after the conclusion, a media-sponsored review of the 175,000-plus disputed ballots has concluded it came down to a very small number of votes.
The data, compiled by the Associated Pressand seven other news groups, also suggests that Mr Gore followed a legal strategy after election day that would have led to his defeat even if it had not been rejected by the Supreme Court.
Mr Gore sought a recount of a relatively small portion of the state's disputed ballots, but the review indicates his only chance lay in a course he advocated publicly but did not pursue in court - a full statewide recount of all Florida's untallied votes.
Mr Gore was diplomatic in the face of the results of the review.
"We are a nation of laws and the presidential election of 2000 is over," Mr Gore said. "Right now, our country faces a great challenge as we seek to successfully combat terrorism. I fully support President Bush's efforts to achieve that goal".
AP