By election which might never happen

HESWALL, Wirral South. Standing outside "Mr Chips" and the Church of the Good Shepherd. Watching the media circus

HESWALL, Wirral South. Standing outside "Mr Chips" and the Church of the Good Shepherd. Watching the media circus. Waiting for Tony Blair. How will you vote in the by election? I asked one bemused spectator.

"Is there going to be one?" came the swift reply. And no, he wasn't registering the usual voter indifference to the concerns of the Westminster chattering class.

One of the oddities of this by election campaign, now only in its third full day, is the uncertainty as to whether the vote will take place.

This might be a largely prosperous seat, home Merseyside's well heeled commuters, boasting unemployment of under 7 per cent and owner occupation of 81 per cent. But it is a Tory marginal for all that.

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The mood on the ground reflects opinion poll predictions that the Conservative majority of 8,183 will convert to a Labour victory.

And the theory (outlined in the "London Letter" two weeks has taken hold that, faced with defeat on February 27th, Mr John Major might kill off the by election by naming the general election date instead.

Opinion on this was divided among the large press corp outside the Cheshire Cat pub at Thornton Hough, as Mr Blair arrived grinning like one.

The theory is simple enough. Defeat deals a massive blow to Conservative morale; persuades the media that Mr Blair is a shoe in; and prompts the Ulster Unionists to switch allegiance and back him in a confidence vote.

The risk is that the end days of the parliament might acquire a momentum of their own; the argument, that Mr Major must retain control.

But control of what? A general election set for fear of defeat in the Wirral would seem to have only one likely outcome. And if Mr Major's only hope is that something might turn up, why not hang on and carry on hoping for as long as possible?

Labour activists here think that the likeliest course, for they harbour few doubts about the outcome on February 27th.

This constituency has two grammar schools, and the Tories are keen to exploit worries about Labours plans to allow parental ballots to determine their future status.

But at his meeting with former Conservative and Liberal voters, Mr Blair pushed all the buttons in his relentless drive to reassure Middle England. Labour would be tough on big time crime, and equally on the graffiti merchants and the people giving hassle on the streets. There would be a fast track justice system for juvenile offenders.

He disagreed with Mr Major about the Social Chapter - but a vote for him wouldn't be one for Jacques Santer. Prime Minister Blair would fight "more strongly" for the British interest

"because I'm a patriot". But Britain couldn't build a better future in isolation or as a low skill, low wage economy.

There was a populist swipe at the "Fat Cats" in the privatised utilities. But the emphasis was on Labour as the party of prudent housekeeping. Britain spent more on unemployment than on education ... less on law and order and defence than on interest payments on the national debt.

"This is crazy," confided Mr Blair.

On the streets the punters seemed ready to agree. Mrs Davis used to vote Liberal but husband Bill had persuaded her: "There's a mood for change. We can't put up with another five years of the Tories. We're pensioners now and we can see things going downhill."

Jill Stephenson agreed: "I think Tony Blair's a fine man and represents new hope for the country."

Mrs Unwin had been horrified by the story of a boy needing a bone marrow transplant on the day the second National Lottery began: "It's just atrocious." Continuing the wave of female adulation (no hints of Phony Tony here) Jane Swift said of the Labour leader: "I like him actually. A lot of the politicians talk above your head but he seems like a normal person."

As Mr Blair worked his way through the media scrum Joan and Jeffrey Williams watched from a distance. They wouldn't say how they would vote but clearly didn't like John Prescott, and thought Mr Major had little time to pull something from the hat.

The clue as to what it might be came from the retired Mr Williams, who lamented the state of things: "It's awful now when you go abroad and get sand kicked in your face by the Germans." Sue Criddle didn't wait for Labour's roadshow, declaring only that she'd be voting "against the European Union" and come the general election, that meant for the Referendum Party, not the Conservatives.

Little early encouragement then for the Tories; but for those reading the runes, perhaps one crucial pointer. While, Labour's activists anticipate victory on February 27th, few are prepared to predict they will hold the seat come the main event. Mr Major might think that worth holding on to.