A middle-ranking portfolio with a legal dimension, either dealing with the internal market or consumer affairs, appeared the most likely home for Ireland's new Commissioner-designate, Mr David Byrne, yesterday.
His nomination almost completes the picture of the new Commission's membership, although portfolios have yet to be allocated. That will be done between now and Friday July 16th, when the team will meet for the first time. It formally takes office in September following Parliamentary ratification.
The Commission-President designate, Mr Romano Prodi, has achieved a politically balanced team with the nomination of eight of its 20 members from the ranks of centrist or conservative parties, no mean feat in a Europe dominated by left-of-centre governments in 12 of the 15 member-states.
The gender balance is not so impressive. With only five women expected to be nominated, the status quo will barely be preserved unless the Danish Environment Commissioner, Ms Ritt Bjerregaard, is given an unlikely last-minute reprieve.
Mr Byrne's nomination was yesterday welcomed by the Irish Commissioner, Mr Padraig Flynn, who wished him well and promised any practical help he could give to ease him into the job.
He said Mr Byrne would be starting at a very exciting time for the EU but warned he would find the role both demanding and intensely scrutinised by Parliament.
He said Mr Byrne's considerable legal experience should help in the negotiations with Mr Prodi to secure a substantial dossier. It was important for Ireland to look beyond traditional spending dossiers. Portfolios such as the Industry commissionership, with its responsibility for new technology, or responsibility for trade, were dossiers of considerable European and Irish significance.
Indeed, Mr Byrne's nomination suggests second thoughts on the part of the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, who earlier indicated a preference to Mr Prodi for one of the big-spending dossiers, Agriculture, Regional Policy or Social Policy.
With the Farm Commissioner, Mr Franz Fischler, returning to the same portfolio, Agriculture was always out of the question.
Mr Byrne's legal expertise but lack of ministerial experience or experience in either economics or foreign policy significantly narrows the field of possible jobs.
Specifically, the dossiers of Justice and Home Affairs, Competition, the Internal Market, and Consumers and Health suggest themselves, although the Portuguese appear to have staked a successful claim to Justice.
The Competition dossier is one of the most important and technical of all portfolios and is unlikely to return to an Irishman so soon after it was relinquished by Mr Peter Sutherland.
The Internal Market job might thus have some possibilities and appeal. As currently constituted it involves the substantial responsibility for tax harmonisation, a matter of concern to Ireland.
Consumer policy has been strengthened by the Amsterdam Treaty and linked to food safety and would involve Mr Byrne in much of the all-too-regular crisis management surrounding food scares.
There was some speculation in Brussels yesterday that Mr Byrne's relative lack of European or administrative experience might open him up to criticism from MEPs during their September hearings. However, there are a number of other more vulnerable targets likely to sate their appetite - Finland's Budget Commissioner, Mr Erkki Liikanen, and Mr Jacques Delors' right-hand man, Mr Pascal Lamy, are likely to face criticism over their failure to reform procedures during their previous terms of office, allowing bad practice and bureaucracy to flourish.
And Germany's Mr Gunther Verheugen is certain to face Christian Democrat ire over the German Chancellor's refusal to nominate a Christian Democrat.
Mr Prodi's insistence that if an individual Commissioner must be sacked it is he alone, rather than the Parliament, who will do it may not endear him immediately to MEPs. However, it is likely to ensure that his team gets through the hearings without any of their number being sacrificed.
The following are those so far nominated to the new Commission (* not officially confirmed):
Austria: Mr Franz Fischler, Agriculture Commissioner, a conservative, likely to return to the same portfolio.
Belgium: The complex negotiations on the formation of a government have at last produced a Francophone, Socialist Mr Phillipe Busquin, a former minister for social affairs.
* Denmark: Mr Poul Neilson, the Social Democrat Development Minister and the EU's failed candidate to head the UN Development Programme.
Italy (two): The outgoing Internal Market Commissioner, Mr Mario Monti, will return with Mr Prodi.
Finland: The outgoing Budget Commissioner, Mr Erkki Liikanen, (Socialist).
* France (two): Following the rejection of an appointment by the former culture minister, Mr Jack Lang, the nominations will almost certainly go to the former Delors chef de cabinet, Mr Pascal Lamy, (Socialist) and the former European affairs minister, Mr Michel Barnier (Gaullist).
* Germany (two): The Green, Ms Michaele Schreyer, a former Berlin environment minister, and the Socialist Minister for European Affairs, Mr Gunther Verheugen.
Greece: Ms Anna Diamandopoulou, Deputy Minister for Industrial Development (Socialist).
* Luxembourg: Ms Viviane Reding, a Christian Democrat MEP and former journalist.
Netherlands: The euro-sceptical leader of the Liberals, Mr Fritz Bolkestein.
Portugal: Mr Antonio Vitorino, the current Socialist Defence Minister.
Spain (two): The former Socialist economics minister, Mr Pedro Solbes, and the current Agriculture Minister, Ms Loyola de Palacio.
Sweden: Ms Margot Wallstrom, a Social Democratic former minister for social affairs and culture, who is now running a private TV station in Sri Lanka.
UK (two): The outgoing Transport Commissioner, Mr Neil Kinnock, and the former governor of Hong Kong, Mr Chris Patten.
Women (five): Spain, Germany, Luxembourg, Greece, and Sweden.
Centrists/Conservatives (eight): Ireland, Austria, Spain, France, Britain, Netherlands, Italy (two).
Returning (four): Britain, Austria, Italy, Finland.
