Can Holbrooke cut Cypriot knot?

THE US Assistant Secretary of State, Mr Richard Holbrooke, who negotiated the Dayton peace agreement on Bosnia, has negotiated…

THE US Assistant Secretary of State, Mr Richard Holbrooke, who negotiated the Dayton peace agreement on Bosnia, has negotiated peace again - this time helping to end the naval standoff between Greece and Turkey in the Aegean.

But the question now is whether he can dissolve the longstanding mistrust between the two Nato allies and crown his diplomatic career with a breakthrough on the Cyprus problem.

While President Clinton, the UN Secretary General, Dr Boutros Boutros Ghali, and the Nato Secretary General, Mr Javier Solana, all appealed to Ankara and Athens over the naval standoff in the Aegean, Mr Holbrooke used his usual robust tactic With one eye firmly fixed on his Cyprus mission, he spent most of the night from Tuesday to Wednesday on the phone to Turkish and Greek officials. The warships pulled back.

He used a similarly vigorous approach in the talks last year which finally led to the signing of the Bosnian agreement in December. Shuttling between Belgrade, Zagreb and Sarajevo, he effectively beat the Balkan leaders at their own game. His efforts stood in stark contrast to the ineffectual attempts by previous mediators to bring peace to the Balkans.

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An abrasive New Yorker, as famous for his sharp tongue as for his intellect and cunning, he is planning what he calls a "big push" on Cyprus and will visit the island in the middle of this month. But there is little reason for optimism.

"Cyprus is an even tougher nut to crack than Bosnia," said one European diplomat. "The prize to be won is a great one but it seems to me Holbrooke has not left himself nearly enough time."

The latest row over a tiny island in the Aegean, along with a new Turkish deployment of tanks in northern Cyprus, is hardly likely to improve the mood. Turkey has shipped a large number of tanks to Cyprus, but Cypriot military sources were unsure yesterday whether this represented a build up or a replacement of old tanks.

The sources in Nicosia said between 80 and 100 US made M48A5s arrived on the island through the Turkish held port of Famagusta on Saturday. Diplomats in Nicosia confirmed the shipment, but said the figure was closer to 40. The new tanks prompted a Cypriot protest to the UN Security Council.

Dr Boutros Ghali has repeatedly expressed concern over the military build up on the island. According to UN estimates, in December the number of Turkish M-48A5 tanks in Cyprus was 265.

The Turkish held area of the island is one of the most densely militarised regions of the world.

The Greek sector, though militarily weaker than the Turkish sector, has a defence pact with Greece and is also engaged in a major military upgrading.

Mr Holbrooke came into the Clinton administration no stranger to negotiations. He had cut his teeth as a backroom aide in the US delegation to the Vietnam peace talks in Paris in 1968 and 1969. He had also served in the Carter administration in the 1970s.

But time is running short for Mr Holbrooke: he has announced his intention of leaving the US State Department at the end of the month, although he is only 54, with a view to returning to the world of investment banking. However, this announcement, some observers suggest, may be no more than a career ploy.

There have been suggestions that Mr Holbrooke could eventually replace the current Secretary of State, Mr Warren Christopher, particularly if Mr Clinton wins a second term in the White House.

However, Mr Holbrooke's straightforward approach has at times caused him problems in Mr Clinton's inner circle where many acknowledge his negotiating skills but also bristle at his attitude.

The New York Times commented that his superiors consider him "a brilliant mind but very, very high maintenance". The newspaper quoted friends as saying he is "cursed by the conviction that he is the smartest person in the room".