OTTAWA – Canadians voted yesterday in one of their most unpredictable elections ever, one that could just as easily give the ruling Conservatives a solid grip on power or leave them weakened and in danger of losing office.
The centre-right Conservatives, who have governed Canada since early 2006, started the campaign with a healthy lead and told voters they needed a majority of seats in the House of Commons to enable them to focus on economic recovery and keep taxes low.
Over the last two weeks, prime minister Stephen Harper has watched his lead dwindle in the face of an extraordinarily effective campaign by the centre-left New Democrats, a party linked to the labour movement that has never held power in Canada.
“NDP biggest surprise of campaign,” Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper said in a lead election story that questioned whether the Harper government could secure a majority government.
The death of Osama Bin Laden could give a last-minute lift to the Conservatives, the party that has staked most on defence and security. The NDP, which has deep anti-militarist roots, wants to pull Canadian forces out of Afghanistan immediately. Much will depend on whether the New Democrats, whose organisational structure is less deep than that of the Conservatives or the Liberals, can get its supporters out.
“I want you to create line-ups at the polls, my friends, because we can defeat Stephen Harper,” NDP leader Jack Layton told a rally on Sunday.
Opinion polls suggest the Conservatives will win most seats in the new parliament. But if they don’t have a majority, they can only govern with support from other parties, as has been the case since 2006. The Conservatives hold 143 of the 308 seats in the house.
The New Democrats promise to increase corporate taxes, limit the amount of interest that banks can impose on credit card balances and introduce a cap and trade system to curb the greenhouse gases blamed for global warming.
Mr Harper says the result of such policies would be economic disaster at a time when Canada – the largest single supplier of energy to the United States – is recovering well from the global crisis.
“A New Democrat government means higher prices, smaller pay cheques, a weaker economy,” he told a rally on Sunday.
The combative prime minister says that if he gets another minority the New Democrats and Liberals will quickly unite to oust him and create what he calls a dangerous coalition.
A three-day rolling poll by Nanos Research late on Sunday put public support for the Conservatives at 37.1 per cent with the New Democrats at 31.6 per cent. The Liberals, who started the campaign in second place, were at 22.5 per cent.
The New Democrats and the Liberals are competing for the same centre-left voters and if they split the vote, the Nanos poll shows the result could mean a narrow majority for Mr Harper.
An Ekos poll, also released late on Sunday, said the result would be much closer. It had the Conservatives at 33.9 per cent, the New Democrats at 31.2 per cent and the Liberals at 21.0 per cent. No opinion polls are allowed on election day. – (Reuters)