CANADA:Voters in Canada go to the polls next month for the fourth time in six years, writes Richard Rossin Toronto
THE SLOWING economy, Canada's involvement in Afghanistan, and the environment are all likely to play key roles in this country's October 14th election, when the country returns to the polls for the fourth time in just six years.
Although there was no requirement to do so until November 2009, Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper on September 7th called an election to consolidate a majority mandate. Since 2006 he has ruled with a minority government - at the dissolution of parliament, the Conservatives held 127 of a total of 304 seats; the Liberals 95; the Bloc Quebecois 48; the New Democratic Party 30; the Green Party 1; with three Independents and four vacant seats.
Recent polls have the Conservatives leading with as much as 43 per cent of the popular vote with the Liberals on 25 per cent. The Bloc Quebecois has 10 per cent, but as it only contests seats in the province of Quebec, this would translate into many more seats than the nationwide poll would suggest.
Since 2006 Harper has been able to push through a number of measures that would normally have been unacceptable to the opposition parties by threatening to call an election. As such, he has been able to run Canada with the same sort of confidence that would normally be associated with a strong majority.
The Liberals, who had been in office for almost 13 years, were in disarray and, after the divisive leadership campaign, elected the uncharismatic Stephane Dion. The New Democratic Party has suffered as trade unionists, its traditional base, have found a home in the major parties.
The Bloc Quebecois has recently dropped secession from the rest of Canada as its primary goal and now aspires to becoming the voice of Quebec within federation.
Polls suggest the economy is the major issue going into this election especially the high price of petrol and associated consumer price hikes.
Experts say that Canada has just narrowly dodged a recession, although the economy is in its worst condition since 1991.
Both Dion and Harper have clashed over each other's economic plans with talk of recession instilling fear in the electorate. Dion has claimed that Harper has "mismanaged a once-booming economy into one with growth dropping to among the lowest of G8 nations".
Harper has criticised the Liberal's spending promises, saying they are making "mind-boggling" spending plans that would send Canada into deficit.
Harper has countered with criticism of the Liberal's spending promises, warning of "mind-boggling" spending plans that would send Canada into deficit.
Liberal election spending promises have totalled in excess of 80 billion Canadian dollars, (€52.7 billion) in the first two weeks of the campaign alone while the Conservatives have promisedprogrammes announced of less than 2 billion Canadian dollars (€1.3 billion) annually.
The continuing involvement of Canadian forces in Afghanistan may also sway voters -the Conservatives could be blamed for the war because they have extended the mission twice, despite the fact that it was Paul Martin, a Liberal, who initiated it. Both parties support extending the Afghan mission to 2011.
The environment will also play a central role.The Tories have been previously criticised for backing out of Canada's commitments under the Kyoto Protocol.
Their new plan requires industries to reduce the rate at which they generate greenhouse gases, with a goal of reducing overall emissions by 45 to 65 per cent by 2050. The plan has been widely criticised as "completely inadequate".
Criticism has focused on the use of "intensity-based" targets - relating, emission reductions to overall production, so overall emissions could potentially increase if production also increases. Instead, the Liberals propose a "hard cap" on emissions, setting a definite limit to output.
The Conservatives' plan a hard cap to begin in 2020 or 2025. The Liberals are proposing a "Green Shift" plan, creating a carbon tax coupled with income tax cuts. The Conservatives have claimed this is likely to provoke a serious recession.