Today’s gross domestic product numbers will be eagerly scanned for signs that the Irish economy has returned to growth, having stagnated in the last few months of 2012.
The good news is that the economic commentariate seem to be in agreement that it has, albeit pretty anaemically.
Bloomberg reports that the media of five estimates is quarter on quarter growth of 0.3 per cent which will equate to year on year growth of 0.6 per cent.
But the real interest will be in whether or not domestic demand has started to contribute to growth, with the improving labour market being seen as offering some hope that this particular corner may have been turned.
Unemployment is now 13.7 per cent down from 14.9 per cent a year ago.
“It’s been an export-led recovery but we may be seeing a more balanced picture with potential upside for domestic demand,” predicts Davy’s David McNamara.
Today will also see the release of the balance of payment surplus for the first quarter which will give an indication whether the larger surpluses run in 2001 and 2012 will be replicated this year.
Again, most analysts are
optimistic with Merrion's
Alan McQuaid expecting the 2013 surplus to come in at 7 per cent of GNP or €9 billion.
Just as well, because as McQuaid notes, the balance of payment number is very closely watched by international investors.
This is not only because its a direct reflection of the competitiveness of the economy, but because it also is a measure of our ability to repay the mountain of debt we have taken on over the last five years.
Hopefully the soothsayers will be proved right because after the unflattering light shone on Ireland over the last few days thanks to the latest Anglo Irish Bank revelations, our bond holders may need some reassurance.