CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK: The constituency of Carlow Kilkenny is home to possibly the most relaxed Dáil deputy in the country at present. The Labour TD Mr Séamus Pattison is the only outgoing TD certain of his seat, for as Ceann Comhairle he is automatically returned.
The other outgoing TDs are Fianna Fáil's Liam Aylward and John McGuinness, and Fine Gael's Phil Hogan. It is generally accepted that these three will be re-elected. Fine Gael's John Browne is retiring and his son Fergal is trying to keep the seat in the family.
Controversy has been caused among the political parties, including Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens, over an opinion poll published in the Carlow-based Nationalist and Leinster Times last week.
It showed that Carlow would be without its own TD after the general election. On the same day the newspaper launched a campaign telling readers that they should "cop on . . . elect at least one candidate of our own".
Of all the candidates, said the newspaper, Fianna Fáil's Senator M.J. Nolan had the strongest chance of being elected but he was going to be "beaten at the post" by Labour's Kilkenny-based Michael O'Brien. It showed the Green's Mary White, Fine Gael's Fergal Browne and Labour's second candidate, Carlow-based Jim Townsend, failing to win a seat.
Fine Gael's Phil Hogan has said he is very suspicious of the poll "and how it is being spun to benefit Fianna Fáil".
Newspaper editor Mr Eddie Coffey, speaking on RTÉ news last week, said the poll "was carried out for the Nationalist by Bluebird Marketing", a polling company. However, Mr Tim Ryan of Bluebird has denied they carried out any poll for the newspaper.
Mr Coffey subsequently told The Irish Times that if he had made that claim on the radio he did not mean to do so. He said he did "not get the poll directly from Bluebird" but he was certain of the veracity of the figures.
"I got into my hand the original figures . . . I assumed it was done for a political party and that is why I had it thoroughly checked," he said. Asked if the person from whom he got the poll had Fianna Fáil connections, Mr Coffey said they did not.
The Fianna Fáil general secretary, Mr Martin Mackin, when asked if it was a Fianna Fáil poll which had been published, said he had no comment to make.
Bluebird Marketing has carried out a large number of constituency polls for Fianna Fáil, including some in the Carlow Kilkenny constituency. However it is understood that none of its polls showed the Labour candidate, Mr O'Brien, taking the fourth seat.
All the candidates mention health and crime as issues affecting the voters in this constituency. In Kilkenny there has been controversy over a planned centre for asylum-seekers on the outskirts of the city. Some local people have formed an action group, saying the manner in which decisions were made was unfair and they were not consulted.
Kilkenny is not just pretty but also prosperous. It attracts a large amount of tourists and has a strong industrial base, including the Smithwicks brewery. It also has the administrative headquarters of the South Eastern Health Board and the decentralised Office of Public Works.
Carlow is less picturesque but has a number of major employers including Braun, Irish Sugar and an Institute of Technology. It also has a growing commuter population, many of whom catch the first train to Dublin at 6.30 in the morning.
There is no evidence of a Fianna Fáil voting pact here. John McGuinness's face was much in evidence in Kilkenny city. The message urging a vote for his two running mates was in very small type at the bottom of the poster. M.J. Nolan has asked voters to transfer to other Carlow candidates rather than his party colleagues. Fine Gael's Phil Hogan is a well-known electoral strategist but it seems unlikely that even his skills will get Fergal Browne elected.
The absence of Mr Pattison from the race in this now four- seater constituency has made the last seat extremely difficult to call. On the basis of her poll-topping performance in the local election and a possible swing towards the Greens it may well be won by Mary White.
Prediction: FF 2, FG 1, GP 1, Lab 1. FG loss to FG.