Willie Penrose of Labour and Mary O'Rourke of Fianna Fáil should have noproblems returning to the Dáil. However, FG's incumbent might have a fighton his hands, writes Michael O'Regan, Parliamentary Reporter
Fine Gael is expected to resist the Fianna Fáil challenge to its seat in Westmeath.
The first two seats are likely to be taken by outgoing TDs Mr Willie Penrose (Labour) and the Fianna Fáil Minister for Public Enterprise, Ms Mary O'Rourke. This will leave a battle for the third seat between the outgoing Fine Gael TD, Mr Paul McGrath, and the second Fianna Fáil candidate, long-serving senator Mr Donie Cassidy.
Mr Cassidy, from Castlepollard, has long held Dáil ambitions and is launching a strong campaign.
But Mr McGrath, from Mullingar, has had his electoral obituary written prematurely before, not least in advance of the 1997 election.
Mr Cassidy will have his work cut out for him and may need the kind of national swing to Fianna Fáil which would secure the party an overall majority if he is to move from the Seanad to the Dáil.
There is a consensus that Mullingar-based Mr Penrose, Labour's spokesman on agriculture, will head the poll.
A star electoral performer, he defied national trends in 1997 when he topped the poll with 8,037 votes - just 160 short of the quota.
As Labour struggled elsewhere, he also increased his party's share of the vote from 20.1 per cent to 24.5 per cent.
Since then, he has added to his profile with a strong Dáil performance, paving the way for a repeat performance in Westmeath this time.
Reports that Ms O'Rourke, whose base is Athlone, might be under pressure are not borne out by local polls, and she is expected to finish second to Mr Penrose in first preferences.
Intensely political and an experienced and shrewd performer, she has a strong family link with politics in Westmeath.
She is sister of the late Brian Lenihan, who lived in Athlone and represented Roscommon/Leitrim in the Dáil for a number of years, and is the daughter of P.J. Lenihan, TD for Longford/Westmeath from 1965 to 1970. As the party's deputy leader, she has a cast-iron claim for promotion if Fianna Fáil returns to power.
A Westmeath Examiner/MRBI poll predicted that Mr Penrose would head the poll with 33 per cent of the vote, followed by Ms O'Rourke with 29 per cent, both securing election on the first count.
That would, as is anticipated locally, leave the battle for the third seat between Mr McGrath and Mr Cassidy.
Mr McGrath has a running-mate, Ms Nicola McFadden, an Athlone-based councillor, and it is likely that her transfers will secure the party's seat.
However, the poll did indicate that only one in four of the voters giving Ms McFadden a first preference was transferring to her running-mate, with a proportion of her second preferences going to the local candidate, Ms O'Rourke. But Fine Gael remains confident that, on the day, its percentage of the vote will be enough to save its seat.
Mr McGrath, a TD since 1989 and a onetime senior front bench spokesman, is a wily and experienced politician. He has been among those Fine Gael TDs rejecting the pre-election predictions by some commenators that the party is in meltdown.
Rumours of his own electoral demise are expected, yet again, to be greatly exaggerated on the day of the count.
Ms Veronica Lynam is contesting a seat as an Independent.
Prediction: FF 1, FG 1, Lab 1. No change.
Tomorrow: Clare, Dublin North, Dublin Midwest
1997: FF, 45.67%; FG, 25.88%; Lab, 24.51%; Others, 3.94%
Outgoing TDs: Mary O'Rourke (FF); Paul McGrath (FG); Willie Penrose (Lab).