DESPITE continuing speculation, the British Defence Secretary, Mr Michael Portillo, has stated there is little prospect of a renewed IRA ceasefire ahead of the British general election.
While ITN last night predicted the IRA would observe a de facto "time limited" ceasefire in the weeks before and after the election to facilitate Sinn Fein's election chances, Mr Portillo held out virtually no hope of a pre election ceasefire.
"There is no indication at all at the moment with the IRA that a ceasefire is on their minds," he said yesterday on a visit to Mahon security barracks in Portadown.
A senior republican source also cast cold water on predictions of a pre election ceasefire.
ITN, quoting security sources in the North and the South, said the IRA was planning a lull in action ahead of the election and for several weeks afterwards.
A senior republican figure said that talk of a ceasefire was illogical. "The IRA ended its ceasefire because it received no guarantees on Sinn Fein entering talks. Why should they call a ceasefire when there are still no guarantees?"
He was equally doubtful that the IRA would observe a temporary declared or undeclared de facto ceasefire. "I can never remember the IRA calling a tactical ceasefire to facilitate Sinn Fein in elections," he said.
The Ulster Unionist Party leader, Mr David Trimble, however, saw merit in the speculation. "I see no inconsistency in Mr Portillo's remarks and the ITN report because we have been warning that any such ceasefire would be short term and tactical," he said.
Its purpose would be threefold, he added: to put pressure on the SDLP leader in his dealing with Sinn Fein, particularly in relation to a possible pact to enhance Sinn Fein's standing among wavering SDLP supporters and to put pressure on the incoming British government.
Meanwhile, a plan by any successful Sinn Fein British general election candidates to attend Westminster "frequently" without taking their seats has been ridiculed by the SDLP deputy leader, Mr Seamus Mallon.
Mr Richard McAuley, spokesman for Sinn Fein president Mr Gerry Adams, confirmed yesterday that if the party succeeds in getting one or more MPs elected on May 1st, it will play a more active role in Westminster.
Mr McAuley insisted, however, that Sinn Fein would maintain its abstentionist policy by refusing to take up Westminster seats and by refusing to swear the oath of allegiance. "There is absolutely no change in our position on that principle," he said.
Mr McAuley said the Westminster move was part of a policy previously stated by Mr Adams of arguing the republican position more trenchantly on the international stage. "We already have offices in Washington and Brussels and are seriously considering opening one in London, because that is the seat of the British government and where decisions are made.
"It is also where the international media are based, and where we must prove that we have a case to make.
Mr Mallon responded by accusing Sinn Fein of trying to take "an each way bet on peace" and of engaging in a public relations stunt. "You can't legislate from the gallery of the House of Commons," he said.
The only way true influence could be exerted on the British government was through the parliamentary process. Either Sinn Fein and the republican movement are totally and absolutely committed to a peaceful way forward through representative politics and negotiations, or they are not."
Mr Mallon added: "Are Sinn Fein to be signed in through the back door by a handful of Labour party backbench MPs who have no influence in their own party, and who will have no power or influence, in government if elected.
Mr Mallon also condemned the appearance of two IRA men at a republican rally in north Belfast, on Tuesday.
"The IRA obviously believe they have a right to take to the streets armed and masked while at the same time they talk and preach about peace. This is political schizophrenia at its most contradictory," he said.
Meanwhile, Mr Adams has described the Conservative Party election manifesto as a "unionist charter which reveals why the peace process collapsed under John Major".
"The Tory manifesto pre determines the outcome of any negotiations by seeking an internal arrangement and backing the unionist position on the union. It exposes as nonsense this British government's claim that it has no selfish interest in the North," he added.
The former Ulster Unionist Party leader, Mr James Molyneaux, who is retiring from, the House of Commons, entered the election fray with a jibe implicitly directed at the DUP.
In the light of Dr Mo Mowlam's comments that Sinn Fein might enter talks on June 3rd following an immediate IRA ceasefire Mr Molyneaux suggested that parties such as the DUP must now reappraise their own position, having criticised the UUP for its "reluctance to oust a Conservative government".
"Today those parties have red faces as they predict a sell out by the Dr Mowlam they would have installed at any time since," said Mr Molyneaux.
The Workers' Party, in a statement, said the choice facing the electorate was to vote for "real peace and political progress" or to let "the rancid sectarian politics of nationalism and unionism continue to dominate their lives".
