Central bankers see global economic upturn

Top central bankers said today the chances for an upturn in the world's largest economy were intact and played down the risk …

Top central bankers said today the chances for an upturn in the world's largest economy were intact and played down the risk of global recession.

Nonetheless, they warned the threat of war in Iraq was clouding any forecast.

"If you look through the Iraq uncertainty a gradual strengthening of the US economy seems a more likely prospect than significant weakening," Bank of England Governor Sir Edward George told reporters after chairing a meeting of central bankers at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

The assessment did not substantially differ from what central bankers said after their most recent meeting two months ago when they had predicted a modest global upturn this year, with a steady improvement in growth led by the United States and Europe lagging only slightly behind.

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Commenting on growth in the euro zone, Sir Eddie said, "Underlying growth is somewhat slower than expected before but it is still modestly positive".

"Germany is not headed for recession, nor certainly is the euro zone - their expectation is for modest but positive growth and that will be true of the United States . . . for the United Kingdom and true also of Japan," he added.

With the world now bracing for war, investor confidence has plummeted and markets have fallen to new depths, raising fears the global economy could be heading for recession.

Recent economic data have pointed more to a continued slowdown rather than to a gradual pickup, as predicted by central bankers at their last Basel meeting on January 13th.

But Sir Eddie said growing geopolitical uncertainty made it increasingly difficult to forecast the global economy ahead.

"It is very difficult to disentangle the impact of the political situation from underlying macroeconomics," he added.

Last Friday, figures for February US payrolls plunged, showing that worries over Iraq were stopping firms from hiring and raising the chances of a US interest rate cut from the current 1.25 percent - already a four-decade low.

The ECB, concerned that geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices were damaging confidence and undermining growth prospects, cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points last week, disappointing markets that had hoped for a more aggressive move.