In the first of a series, Derek Scally, in Vilnius, finds Ireland's Nice vote could crucially affect EU support in Lithuania
The centre of Europe is not to be found in the corridors of power in Brussels, but at a small stone pyramid in a forest north of Vilnius.
At least that was what the French National Geographical Institute decided a decade ago. Following the fall of the Soviet Union, the Lithuanian capital is now the centre of the new Europe.
The monument, located in the pretty Centre of Europe Park, reminds over 60,000 visitors annually that until the second World War, Lithuania was a normal European country, wealthier than Finland or Denmark. The monument is just one example of how anxious Lithuania is to rejoin Europe through the European Union.
Stone markers in the ground around the monument show the distance to other European capitals. Some 2,047km away is "Baile Átha Cliath", the capital where Lithuania's EU ambitions could receive a major setback next month. A majority of Lithuanians support EU membership, particularly politicians and young people. But Eurosceptics can be found everywhere, even here at the Centre of Europe monument.
"The EU is good if you want to work and travel with no problems. But we have our own identity and independence and I am afraid to lose it," said Jurlè Kisieliute (25), who works in the nearby giftshop.
Her fears are common and understandable, considering it is little more than a decade since Lithuania emerged as an independent state after a brutal half-century of illegal Soviet occupation. Nearly a million Lithuanians were either murdered or deported to Siberian prison camps under Soviet rule; the Nazis annhilated the country's 300,000 Jews.
The country has made extraordinary economic progress in the decade since independence, despite the setbacks of the Russian economic crisis in 1998.
But progress on EU accession was hampered by several rounds of political musical chairs in the late 1990s. The pace of negotiations picked up again a year ago with the election of the Social Democratic Prime Minister, Mr Algirdas Brazauskas, a former senior Communist official. While the Soviet Union is just a memory, its legacy remains the source of greatest difficulty on the road to EU membership Negotiations have faltered over the future of the Ignalina nuclear power plant. The EU demands the closure of the plant, which has the same reactors as the Chernobyl plant. But that presents Lithuania with a double dilemma.The plant provides over 80 per cent of the country's electricity and the cost of decommisioning the plant - estimates are as high as €9 billion - means the Lithuanian government cannot foot the bill alone. "The plant is too big for us but it is too expensive to close," said Mr ygimantas Pavilionis, head of the European integration department in the Foreign Ministry. The government is prepared to close the first reactor by 2005 and the second by 2009, if it finds agreement with the EU on the financial side. "We are looking for a special budget line to address this, like that extended for the Northern Ireland peace process," said Mr Pavilionis.
The Soviet legacy of collective farming has been a stumbling block in negotiations on agriculture. A third of the population here lives on the land but farming contributes around 8 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).
Farmers never expected a financial bonanza from the EU but they were still angry when it emerged that they would receive direct payments just a quarter the level to farmers in existing member states.
But Mr Brazauskas managed to sell the idea to farmers with the logic that although the glass was only a quarter full, at least it wasn't empty. "There is no organised opposition to the EU from farmers here because the genetic idea of an independent farm is so far away and the confidence of Lithuanian farmers is already ruined," said Mr Robert Jennings, the Irish honorary consul in Vilnius. He was the centre of media attention in Lithuania after the last year's No vote in Ireland. Lithuanians would have expected a No vote from a large country like Germany, he says, but not from Ireland. "There is a feeling that small countries should support each other. The referendum result was like a cold shower," he said. "There is no way they will see a second No vote as anything but a rejection of Lithuania." Recent polls suggest that just over half of Lithuanians are in favour of EU accession, believing it will bring greater economic prosperity and security. One in five questioned opposes membership, while the same number is still undecided how they would vote in a national referendum on EU accession, which will probably take place around this time next year.
Lithuania's EU negotiators believe that Ireland's vote on the Nice Treaty could tip the scales of EU support either way. A Yes vote could secure support while a No vote could poison public opinion for the foreseeable future.
"People here expect a lot and a No vote will dash a lot of hopes," said Mr Klaudijus Maniokas, deputy general director of the European Committee in Vilnius.
"But we don't think a No vote is the end of the road. We have invested too much in EU membership." One of the country's biggest investments has been in its young people. Already an estimated 8,000 young Lithuanians have travelled to work in Ireland. Existing visa-free travel to Ireland makes a sudden rise in numbers after accession unlikely, according to government officials.