AN EU-WIDE survey predicts that the European People’s Party will remain the largest in the European Parliament after June’s European elections.
The survey sees only one change in Irish representation in the parliament – the loss of a seat held by an Independent, reflecting the fact that Ireland will have one fewer MEP.
The survey also suggests that Libertas, the organisation run by Declan Ganley and which is seeking to run candidates in several EU countries, may only claim one or two seats in the elections.
The survey, Predict 09, forecasts the centre-right EPP, which includes Fine Gael MEPs, will remain the largest group in the parliament but its share of the seats is likely to fall to 33 per cent from 37 per cent, due to the defection of the British Conservative after the elections, which will be held from June 4th to 7th.
Predict 09, compiled by researchers from London School of Economics and Trinity College Dublin, suggests that Libertas will pick up a single seat in France – through a pact with Movement for France (MPF) – and possibly one MEP in Finland, if it is able to agree a pact with the True Finns.
“Libertas’s campaign doesn’t seem to be working because it is the only party focusing on European issues through a Europe-wide campaign. But people still vote on national issues in the European elections,” said Prof Simon Hix of the London School of Economics. “They are not doing well . . . it is very hard to make it a Europe-wide election in the way Ganley is trying to do.”
A country-by-country prediction, available at www.predict09.eu, shows MPF claiming a slightly smaller share of the vote in France in 2009 (5.7 per cent) compared to 2004 (6.7 per cent). This would reduce the number of seats in the new parliament held by MPF/Libertas from three to one.
Predict 09 forecasts the True Finns party is on course to take its first seat in the European parliament with a vote of 7.1 per cent. The forecasts are based on analysis of recent opinion polls and previous voting records.
A Libertas spokeswoman said the methodology in the study didn’t take into account the fact that Libertas was a brand new political force as it was based on previous voting records.
Prof Hix cautioned that predictions for smaller countries may not be as reliable as those for the big six EU states, on which the team of researchers had spent a lot of time collecting data to ensure that their EU-wide predictions were as accurate as possible. The six biggest EU states – Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland – account for 58 per cent of the 736 seats available in the 2009 elections, down from the current 785 seats.
Predict 09 forecasts Fine Gael will take five seats, Fianna Fáil four, Sinn Féin one, Labour one and Independents one. This would leave either Kathy Sinnott or Marian Harkin losing their seat, as the total number of Irish MEPs is due to fall from 13 to 12 seats.
Trinity College Dublin’s Prof Michael Marsh said the Budget could hurt Fianna Fáil’s chances. He also said it would be a mistake to interpret the Predict 09 results as definitive for a small country; it should provide a more accurate forecast of EU-wide trends.
Predict 09 forecasts representation in the parliament for the EPP-ED group will fall to 249 seats from 288; the Socialist group will fall to 209 seats from 217; the Liberal group will fall to 87 seats from 100; the Green group will fall to 39 seats from 43; the UEN group will rise to 58 seats from 44 and change its name to the European Conservatives; GUE/NGL will rise to 48 seats from 41; IND/DEM will fall to 17 seats from 22; the number of non-attached MEPs will fall to 29 from 30.