Mr Austin Deasy's challenge is hastily organised, has no campaign behind it, comes from a soon-to-retire maverick TD and had barely 24 hours to gain support. In these circumstances, anything less than a substantial victory for Mr John Bruton will encourage other more serious opponents to believe a full assault on his leadership might succeed.
Some Bruton supporters suggested yesterday that a resounding win would leave their man strengthened in advance of an election. However, other loyalists conceded that the challenge, however unlikely to succeed, drew unwelcome attention again to the fact that as it faces into what could well be an election year, large sections of the party are unhappy with their leader's performance.
It had been generally accepted within Fine Gael that the leadership issue had been put on ice until after the next general election. No clear alternative has emerged, and Mr Bruton appeared to have the acquiescence of the entire party to have one last shot at becoming Taoiseach. His chance may be as few as six months away, and to that end Fine Gael has just embarked, to mixed reviews, on an expensive advertising campaign on the theme "The Celtic Snail".
Yesterday's challenge, therefore, was entirely unexpected despite constant poor poll performances. Last weekend's IMS poll result produced further grim but unsurprising reading for the party. Mr Bruton was, as usual, the least popular of the main party leaders, while his party stood at 19 per cent.
Mr Deasy first said yesterday the poll figures had nothing to do with his decision to challenge, although later he said the results confirmed his view. Mr Bruton was a man of considerable intellect, he said. He just didn't connect with the voters. There was no evidence available last night to contradict Mr Deasy's assertion he was acting on his own, and not on behalf of a hidden challenger. Not one Fine Gael TD, senator or MEP emerged to back Mr Deasy publicly.
Party whip and former Bruton opponent Mr Charles Flanagan accompanied senior frontbencher Mr Ivan Yates on to the Leinster House plinth to announce unanimous front-bench support for their leader. It would be a "one-day wonder", declared Mr Yates.
However, condemnation of the timing came a lot more easily to front and backbench lips than condemnation of the sentiment behind Mr Deasy's motion. "There is a feeling that he is a liability," Mr Deasy told reporters yesterday. "If there was a clear alternative, I have no doubt John Bruton would be gone long ago."
It is a far cry from the last heave in 1994. Then no fewer than seven front-bench members had opposed his leadership. Mr Michael Noonan, Mr Alan Dukes, Mr Jim O'Keeffe, Mr Alan Shatter, Mr Charles Flanagan, Mr Jim Higgins and Ms Frances Fitzgerald were all put off the front bench for their trouble.
Last June, before the Tipperary South by-election, speculation about another challenge grew amid predictions the party could come fourth in the contest. Ultimately Fine Gael's candidate, Senator Tom Hayes, put in a very strong performance, challenging for the seat won by independent Mr Seamus Healy. Talk of a heave evaporated and Mr Bruton reshuffled his front bench, promoting a few younger deputies and, apparently, copper-fastening his position.
However Mr Deasy's challenge has served to focus attention once again on the leadership issue. And as the party attempts to put itself forward as a positive force, that's the last thing it wanted.