Chance of asteroid hitting Earth nearly 1 in million

BRITAIN: An asteroid around 1 km wide could hit Earth on March 21st, 2014, and has been classified as "an event meriting careful…

BRITAIN: An asteroid around 1 km wide could hit Earth on March 21st, 2014, and has been classified as "an event meriting careful monitoring" by astronomers.But they say the probability of impact with Earth is just 1 in 909,000 and the risk is likely to decrease as they continue to track its movements.

The asteroid, known as 2003 QQ47, will be observable from Earth for the next two months and astronomers will study it over this period.

The current orbit calculations are based on just 51 observations during a seven-day period.

Dr Alan Fitzsimmons, of Queen's University, Belfast, one of the expert team advising the UK NEO (Near Earth Objects) Information Centre, based in Leicester, said there was no cause for concern.

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He said it had been observed for less than a week so far. He said: "There is some uncertainty about where it is going.

"In all probability, within the next month we will know its future orbit with an accuracy which will mean we will be able to rule out any impact.

"Previously this year, we have had several asteroids which have had much higher probabilities of colliding with the Earth in the next 100 years and they have almost all been ruled out.

"I would say there is no cause for concern at all."

The giant rock was first observed on August 24th by Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research Programme (LINEAR), based in Socorro, New Mexico.

The observations were reported to the Minor Planet Centre in Massachusetts, a centre for all new discoveries of asteroids and comets.

The asteroid has been given a classification - known as a "Torino hazard rating" - of one, defining it as "an event meriting careful monitoring". The scale goes up to 10.

Mr Kevin Yates, project manager for the UK NEO Information Centre, said:

"As additional observations are made over the coming months, and the uncertainties decrease, asteroid 2003 QQ47 is likely to drop down the Torino scale."

Asteroids such as 2003 QQ47 are chunks of rock left over from the formation of our solar system 4.5 billion years ago.

Most are kept at a safe distance from Earth in the asteroid belt between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter.

But the gravitational influence of giant planets such as Jupiter can nudge asteroids out of these safe orbits and send them plunging into Earth's neighbourhood.

The newly discovered asteroid weighs around 2,600 million tonnes.

In the unlikely event of it hitting Earth, the rock would have the force of 350,000 megatonnes - around eight million times more powerful than the bomb dropped at Hiroshima at the end of the second World War.

On impact, it would be travelling at 75,000 m.p.h.

Meanwhile, bookmakers William Hill said it was "happy" to take bets at odds of 909,000/1 that the asteroid would hit Earth, wiping out life at the same time.

"On the principle that if the asteroid does wipe out life on earth, we probably won't have to worry about paying out to winning customers, we will happily take all such bets," said William Hill spokesman Mr Graham Sharpe.

"Although one customer who placed a bet on the world ending said that he would collect his winnings in heaven." - (PA)