TURKEY/CYPRUS: The winner of the recent Turkish poll is in Athens to talk about EU accession, but really the talks will turn to Cyprus, writes Nicholas Birch in Ankara
Less than 28 days to solve a 28- year deadlock. The sort of plot synopsis that no self-respecting Hollywood producer would turn down.
Pity Recep Tayyip Erdogan, though, since November 3rd Turkey's leader in all but name. He travels to Athens today to meet the Greek prime minister, Mr Costas Simitis, knowing this is not fiction but reality. On Saturday, Mr Erdogan described his visit as a continuation of his diplomatic efforts to persuade European leaders that even a Turkey governed by his Muslim conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) deserves a place in Europe. There is little doubt, though, that his talk with Mr Simitis will concentrate on the vexed issue of Cyprus.
The island has been divided since 1974, when Turkish troops invaded to prevent Greek-Cypriot extremists - egged on by the military junta then in power in Athens - from uniting with the Greek mainland. Protected by 35,000 soldiers and recognised only by Ankara, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus unilaterally declared independence in 1983.
Mr Erdogan could not have chosen a more crucial time to join the political fray. With European leaders due to meet in Copenhagen on December 12th, a rapid solution to the Cyprus problem is essential to the EU's enlargement plans and to Turkey's hopes of joining.
Brussels intends to begin accession proceedings with the Greek-Cypriot administration - in its eyes the only legitimate authority on the island - in 2004. But the Turks warn that could force them to annex the north of the island, exacerbating regional instabilities and ending their hopes of a European future. If, on the other hand, European leaders go back on their word, Greece will block all further enlargement of the Union.
In a last-minute effort to avoid a crisis, the UN Secretary-General, Mr Kofi Annan, on November 11th brought out a 150-page document outlining his team's blueprint for a reunified Cyprus. Greek, Turkish and Cypriot leaders have until today to decide if they accept it as the basis of negotiations. With Greece as a member of the EU having the strongest hand, Mr Simitis was the first to respond.
"This may be the last chance for a solution to the problem via this route," he warned his cabinet, adding that he hoped Mr Erdogan "understands that if he insists on Turkey's position up to now there can be no progress". Mr Erdogan and his team show clear signs they have understood.
The new government's unofficial foreign minister, Mr Yasar Yakis, slapped down warnings from Turkey's outgoing prime minister, Mr Bulent Ecevit, that "Turkey cannot stomach demands" to decrease troops on the island from 35,000 to 10,000, saying that "as long as Turkey has a foothold on the island, we can always intervene".
Mr Erdogan was even more conciliatory. "No matter how much we say they're not related," he said, "solving the Cyprus issue will not just accelerate our EU process, it will also be a concrete and useful step to overcoming the problems between Greece and Turkey."
It doesn't sound much, but it is the first time a Turkish leader has admitted a link between Cyprus and Turkey's EU accession.
Few Turks are surprised by this change of tone. "Don't forget that Erdogan is not Ecevit," says the Cyprus expert of the liberal daily Radikal, Erdal Guven. "Ecevit ordered the invasion of Cyprus in 1974 and still claims that solved the island's problems."
Commentators also interpret Mr Erdogan's openness to dialogue as an expression of his government's inherent insecurity. The AKP may have a huge parliamentary majority, says international relations expert Mr Fatih Tayfur, "but only 35 per cent of Turks voted for it."
For now, Turkish public opinion seems to support AKP's approach to Cyprus. When Turkey's outgoing foreign minister last week implied that Mr Erdogan's positive approach to the UN plan was tantamount to treason, he was savaged by the media. "The last flutters of the hawk's wings," jeered the Radikal.
Mr Erdogan though hasn't succeeded in winning everyone over. "There's a real danger," Mr Unal says, "that the EU could exploit AKP's weakness by forcing concessions another government would refuse. Erdogan may negotiate certain things with EU leaders only to find he cannot push his promises past the Turkish establishment."
"I just hope we don't see a return to the 'Cyprus bathed in the blood of our martyrs' approach", says CNN-Turk's Mehmet Ali Birand. "It would be the road to perdition not just for Turkey, but for the Turkish-Cypriots."