China's leaders are believed to secretly prefer a Gore victory

China's leading officials are not publicly expressing a preference in the US presidential election.

China's leading officials are not publicly expressing a preference in the US presidential election.

Nothing has appeared in the official media to indicate what way they are leaning - indeed little has appeared about the election at all. But it is a sure bet that behind the high walls of the Jongnanhai leadership compound in Beijing, they are rooting for the Democratic candidate, Al Gore.

And it comes down to the one issue which tops the agenda in every foreign policy debate here, that of Taiwan. The Chinese leaders, without doubt, noted remarks made by Republican Party candidate George W. Bush in the election campaign which show him more favourably disposed towards the concerns of Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a wayward province, than Mr Gore.

Mr Bush, for example, supports the inclusion of the island in America's proposed theatre missile defence (TMD) system for the north-eastern Asia-Pacific region, whereas Mr Gore is less enthusiastic about TMD, saying he would limit it to protecting US territory. Embracing Taiwan in the US sphere of protection would be seen in Beijing as interference in China's internal affairs.

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Mr Bush is also likely to favour the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act increasing military co-operation with Taiwan, which is pending congressional approval.

In Taiwan, not surprisingly, the government would prefer a Bush candidacy. A senior official of the Mainland Affairs Council in Taipei noted yesterday that there was no guarantee that the Republican runner would retain a friendly attitude towards Taiwan as president.

Both sides know that Democrats and Republicans tend to become less extreme on China when in the White House. Mr Bush may be saying now that he would treat China as a rival power, a strategic competitor to be contained rather than a strategic partner to be mollified. But Chinese President Jiang Zemin and his officials are sufficiently sceptical about US campaign rhetoric on China not to get too agitated about the prospect of the Texas governor winning the White House.

They remember how in 1992 then-Governor Bill Clinton accused president George Bush of "coddling the butchers of Beijing". But in office Mr Clinton took coddling a great leap forward by declaring a strategic partnership and securing permanent normal trade relations with China.

"Once elected, those same candidates would become down to earth and realise the necessity of improving relations with China," said Mr Li Shaojun, chief of the World Politics Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

On trade it is assumed in Beijing that if Mr Gore becomes president he would continue the policy of balanced engagement and help shepherd China into the World Trade Organisation. What the Vice-President has said on the campaign trail encourages the belief that he favours WTO membership for China to promote free trade and enhance democracy and transparency.

But there is little expectation in Beijing that as president Mr Bush would do anything to hamper free trade with China's growing market - not when investors from all over the world are rushing in to take advantage of the more open competition and bigger profits in China after WTO membership.