A top Chinese trade official today predicted a "notable change" in the country's trade data for March after an unexpected surge in the surplus in the first two months of the year.
The surplus in January and February combined tripled from a year earlier to $39.7 billion, handing further ammunition to US critics who say the yuan is seriously undervalued, giving Chinese exporters an unfair advantage in global markets.
Vice Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng told reporters that data for March, due in principle tomorrow, would show that the January-February results did not herald a further jump.
Asked about the outlook for the surplus in the coming months, Gao said: "I suggest you look at the March trade figures - you will see a notable change in them.
"The surplus of roughly $40 billion in January and February is not indicative of the trend for the first quarter and the rest of the year."
Minggao Shen, an economist with Citigroup in Beijing, said that it was unlikely that China would see a shift from the trend of export-led growth anytime soon. He expects the surplus to widen in March to a record $25.5 billion.
"If it is a change downward and it is reduced to, say, $10 billion, that would be a big change and a big surprise to us," Shen said in response to Gao's comments.