The Construction Industry Federation (CIF) in Cork predicts that by Christmas at least 1,500 construction workers in the city and region will have lost their jobs.
Industry analysts say this forecast has not received the attention it deserves. Lay-offs have begun and so the huge loss of jobs will not be reported as a single event, but rather, the cumulative effect of the piecemeal downturn in the sector.
This is serious news for Cork, given that traditionally, the city does well when the construction industry is buoyant and vice versa.
Foreign construction workers, mainly from England, Scotland and Wales, who arrived in Cork over the past few years to avail of the tiger economy, are no more, says Mr Joe O'Brien, southern director of the CIF. Nor are migrant workers, who could find work and high wages in Cork, looking to these shores.
The predictions are, he says, that the industry will have shed up to 1,500 jobs before the new year begins. Almost all areas of construction are showing a major decline and only Government intervention in the Budget can rescue the industry.
Housing starts, which represent 40 per cent of building activity, are down 37 per cent on last year. On major contracts, the pharmaceutical sector appears to have come to the end of an investment cycle. The fall-off is 10 per cent on last year.
Construction in hotels and the leisure and guesthouse sector is down 35 per cent on last year. The only area showing an increase is civil engineering, which includes local authority contracts for bridges, roads, sewerage schemes, etc.
This area, however, is not heavily labour intensive. House building, which according to the CIF employs the most workers in the sector, is the worst hit.
Mr O'Brien says the significant downturn will be reflected in end-of-year job figures. The sector employs between 6,500 and 7,000 people and is one of the main employers in the region.
It has always been the case that when the chemical and pharmaceutical sector in Cork, where there is a large concentration, is confident about expansion, the construction industry prospers too.
The corollary is that major contracts which these companies are in a position to offer in good times, are nowhere to be seen when US-based parent companies lack confidence.
That had been happening for some time as the US's economic slowdown continued, Mr O'Brien says. The foot-and-mouth scare last summer, which disrupted many projects, didn't help matters either, he says. When September 11th occurred, American confidence was dented even more.
While these events were outside the Government's control, the CIF takes the view that the Budget will give it leeway, should it choose to use it, to help the ailing industry.
"The withdrawal of interest relief means the investors have been driven out of the industry.
"The belief in Government circles seems to have been that first- time buyers would replace the investors who took their money elsewhere, to places like Spain, etc., but that hasn't happened. In new estates, investors could account for anything up to 10 per cent of the uptake and were also a major factor in the demand for apartments.
"It's quite simple, the investor must be brought back in and the Government could achieve this by restoring interest relief and reducing the stamp duty on second-hand houses.
"The 1,500 job losses we speak of are not going to materialise on Christmas Eve, or anything like that. It is a process that has been ongoing for some time and by the end of the year, that is the number of jobs we estimate will have been lost in Cork. It is vital that confidence is restored and to do that, we must have investors," Mr O'Brien says.
The CIF believes that a lack of confidence rather than the economy is to blame for the downturn. On the ground, however, some builders in Cork think the CIF's estimate of job losses may be too low. Mr Declan O'Mahony of Bride View Developments, one of the largest construction firms in the city, says the final figure could be over 2,000.
"It will probably be at the higher rather than the lower end of the scale. The fact is there are very few new housing starts in Cork and most of the main builders in the city are merely finishing off projects that started back in the summer. Unless there is a review of the industry by Government which takes into account the damage that has been done by the successive Bacon reports, then things will not start to get better.
"The point is, that despite what I see as damaging media reports telling people house prices are going to fall, there will be a shortage of new houses and prices will actually go the other way. If confidence is not restored, and that means making it attractive for investors to return to the market, I can only see trouble ahead."