A clear majority will vote in favour of the Government's proposal to remove the automatic right of citizenship from Irish children of non-national parents, according to the results of an Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll.
Some 54 per cent will vote on June 11th in favour of the constitutional amendment, 24 per cent will vote against with 22 per cent having no opinion, the poll indicates.
The poll was conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday among a national quota sample of 2,000 voters throughout all constituencies in the State.
The poll shows the Government in a strong position to succeed in its aim of restricting the automatic citizenship rights of children born on the island of Ireland to those with at least one parent who has been lawfully resident in Ireland for three of the previous four years.
However, the poll was taken 23 days before the referendum vote, and with 22 per cent still undecided there remains potential for the No side to narrow the gap.
There is support for the change among supporters of all political parties, in all regions, age groups and social categories. While Labour, the Greens and Sinn Féin oppose the amendment, their supporters are clearly in favour of it.
Some 54 per cent of Labour supporters will vote in favour, 28 per cent against and 19 per cent have no opinion, the poll shows. Among Green supporters, 54 per cent are in favour, 33 per cent against and 13 per cent have no opinion. Sinn Féin supporters are 56 per cent in favour, 32 per cent against, with 12 per cent having no opinion.
The Government parties have stronger majorities among their supporters in favour. Some 60 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters support the change, 22 per cent are against and 18 per cent have no opinion.
The strongest support is among Progressive Democrat voters where 73 per cent are in favour, 14 per cent against and 13 per cent with no opinion.
Younger voters are somewhat less supportive of the proposal than all of the older age groups, except those over 65. In the 18-24 age group, 51 per cent support removing the automatic right of children of non-national parents to citizenship, 29 per cent are against and 20 per cent have no opinion.
In the 50-64 age cohort, 56 per cent say they will vote yes, 22 per cent will vote no and 22 per cent have no opinion. Some 50 per cent of over 65s are in favour, 23 per cent against, with 28 per cent having no opinion.
There is significantly narrower support for the proposal in Munster than in other regions. In Munster 44 per cent are in favour, 29 per cent against and 27 per cent have no opinion. The strongest regional support is in Leinster excluding Dublin, where 62 per cent are in favour, just 18 per cent against and 22 per cent have no opinion.
In Dublin itself 57 per cent are in favour, 22 per cent against and 21 per cent have no opinion. Finally, in Connacht Ulster 57 per cent are in favour, 27 per cent against and 15 per cent have no opinion.
The better-off ABC1 social category and farmers are marginally more in support than the less well-off C2DE voters. Some 58 per cent of the ABC1s say they will support the change, 22 per cent will oppose it and 20 per cent have no opinion. Among farmers 55 per cent are in favour, 21 per cent against and 24 per cent have no opinion.