Clear verdict is that Sinn Fein must join talks

DEMOCRACY, being shameless, has dealt a devious hand

DEMOCRACY, being shameless, has dealt a devious hand. The outcome of the Northern poll has not solved any problems, but it has at least dispersed some smoke screens and concentrated minds.

The resounding mandate granted to Sinn Fein by a substantial section of the Catholic community carries a message that can be built upon or squandered. It is no carte blanche for prevarication, and it would be wrong to consider it as condoning violence.

The verdict clearly conveys a desire or, more accurately, an imperative that Sinn Fein should be represented at all party negotiations for a settlement.

How that is to be done is a matter for others, but it plainly must be done.

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The political battle over the conditions for entry will intensify acutely over coming days.

The issue of a renewal of the IRA ceasefire will be firmly to the fore in the week remaining before the June 10th deadline for the start of talks, and there is not a glimmer of an idea - in the public domain at least - as to how it will be resolved.

There is plenty of speculation on the repercussions of the vote.

According to one school of thought, the election outcome increases the prospects of an IRA cessation announcement because of the massive reinforcement of Sinn Fein's political status.

It would seem foolish for the republican leadership not to exploit the opportunity which has arisen to go to the table on the crest of popular endorsement.

The opposite school, however, argues that the chances of a ceasefire before June 10th have been hugely diminished. There will be enormous temptation for Sinn Fein, and the IRA, to stretch the strategy of brinkmanship to the limit.

They may, as Mr Gary McMichael of the UDP gloomily predicted, use the result as a battering ram to gain entry to the negotiations.

But a battering ram is a crude instrument and its employment could also shatter the very table at which the Sinn Fein leaders seeks to sit.

Mr Gerry Adams, having emerged triumphant from the electoral field, must now confront another battle, this time with his own troops and some unseen armchair generals.

Can he persuade them, finally, that the ballot box is a more potent weapon in their cause than the gun?

Can he, in fact, persuade them to choose between the two?

There can be no doubt that the two governments will hold to their firm stipulation that the IRA must formally and unequivocally end hostilities if Sinn Fein is to enter talks. The choice is stark.

There must now be a greatly enhanced incentive for the governments to find a formula urgently to overcome the obfuscation on decommissioning.

And they can clear the ground and sweep away the other remaining uncertainties by agreeing rapidly on an agenda and clear rules of procedure for the talks.

With those obstacles out of the way, the choice can be put more directly to the IRA. On the basis of Mr Adams's recent comments, such developments would open the possibility of a positive IRA response.

The election has also posed a challenge to unionists to come to terms with new realities. They, too, must come to terms with their differences, which are now more sharply focused.

For the UUP leader, Mr David Trimble, there is considerable relief that the worst scenario did not develop.

Though his party lost support, they still managed to maintain their position as the single largest party in the North.

But the forces of fundamentalism, as represented by the DUP, pressing harder on their heels. Realising how close the call was,

Mr Trimble vented his fury last night on the unionist "wild card" - Mr Robert McCartney - whose participation in the contest certainly dented the performance of the UUP.

Mr Trimble squarely blamed him for an "ego trip" interference which he saw as allowing Sinn Fein to make a vital inroad in Upper Bann.

Mr McCartney, sanguine as ever, remarked that the Ulster Unionists had "returned to their own gods - whether they are good gods is another matter." He thus acknowledged that unionism has emerged from the election more polarised and divided than ever.

But, as he commented, this was "a new election, with new circumstances, new objectives".

While the election brusquely cleared the air in many ways, it also brought some specific developments which must diminish and deprive the Northern political arena.

The SDLP held its position in general. As Mr John Hume said: "The people have given us a strong voice."

But the loss of one of the party's most articulate and energetic young voices, Mr Alex Attwood, will certainly reduce the potential of the forum as a debating chamber.

And the fact that unionism is left without representation in the Foyle constituency is a cause for regret rather than triumphalism, as it can only increase its growing sense of isolation in the key city of Derry.

The cause of the middle ground in Northern politics has also lost out, with the eclipse of the Alliance Party. They can take heart from the fact that this contest was a special case and in no way guarantees any of the more successful participants that they will hold their gains in future elections.

The casualties of war apart, the election has at least ensured that there will be a varied and representative gathering at the talks table.

In the final analysis, the people decided to treat this unique exercise as an election, although they never became enthused about it. The deficiencies and aberrations of the "list system" were clearly exposed and most of the party leaders would probably agree with Dr John Alderdice.

As he accepted the outcome with good grace, and not without a flicker of humour, the Alliance leader remarked last night: "We're not going to have an election like this again, if we can do anything about it.