US:Districts where Mrs Clinton should do well will return fewer delegates than those where Barack Obama is favourite, writes Matthew Mosk
Supporters of Senator Hillary Clinton are worried that convoluted delegate rules in Texas could water down the impact of strong support for her among Hispanic voters there, creating a new obstacle for her in the must-win presidential primary contest.
Several top Clinton strategists and fundraisers became alarmed after learning of the state's unusual provisions during a private strategy meeting this month, according to a source present.
In certain targeted districts, such as Democratic state senator Juan Hinojosa's heavily Hispanic senate district in the Rio Grande Valley, Clinton could win an overwhelming majority of votes but gain only a small edge in delegates. At the same time, a win in the more urban districts in Dallas and Houston - where Senator Barack Obama expects to receive significant support - could yield three or four times as many delegates.
"What it means is, she could win the popular vote and still lose the race for delegates," Hinojosa said Sunday. "This system does not necessarily represent the opinions of the population, and that is a serious problem."
The disparity in delegate distribution is just one of the unusual aspects of Texas's complex system for apportioning delegates. The scheme has been in use for two decades but is coming under increased scrutiny because the March 4th presidential contest is the first in years that gives the state a potentially decisive voice in choosing the party's nominee.
Under rules described in the 37-page Texas delegate selection plan, two-thirds of the state's 228 delegates will be chosen based on the vote in each of 31 state senate districts. The remaining delegates will be chosen based in part on the outcome of caucuses held on election night after the polls close.
Texas Democratic Party officials said there is a good reason that some senatorial districts yield two or three delegates while others yield seven or, in one, Austin district, eight. The numbers are determined by a formula that is based on the number of voters in each district who cast ballots for John Kerry, in the 2004 presidential campaign and for Chris Bell, the Democratic nominee for governor in 2006.
In a move to encourage participation, the higher the turnout in each district in those years, the more delegates the district will get to select this year.
But Senator Eddie Lucio, a Clinton supporter who represents the heavily Hispanic southern tip of Texas, said the party's formula fails to account for areas where general-election turnout may have been low but turnout for competitive primaries was much higher.
The caucuses have given rise to another concern, according to several top Texas Democrats interviewed last week. Because the state's Democratic Party has been out of power for years, leaders have struggled to find precinct chairs to oversee all of the 8,000 locations where caucuses will be held.
Hinojosa saw another reason for Clinton to be concerned about the caucuses: the working-class voters who have typically favoured her candidacy could be too tired or too busy to vote during the day and then return after 7pm to attend a caucus.
"Anytime you require additional steps, that means extra effort, and that's particularly hard on working families," Hinojosa said. -