Clinton pips Obama in Irish poll with McCain last

UNITED STATES: HILLARY CLINTON is the favoured candidate for the US presidential election among Irish people, according to the…

UNITED STATES:HILLARY CLINTON is the favoured candidate for the US presidential election among Irish people, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll.

Forty-two per cent say they would vote for Mrs Clinton - who officially bowed out of the presidential race over the weekend - if they had a vote in the US elections.

This compares with 37 per cent for Barack Obama, the Democrats' presidential candidate, and just 7 per cent for John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee. Fourteen per cent expressed no opinion.

The poll was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday - when Mrs Clinton was still a candidate - among a representative sample of 1,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies.

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Support for Mrs Clinton is stronger than for Mr Obama among women and older people. Half of all women support Mrs Clinton compared with 36 per cent of men.

However, Mr Obama attracts significantly more support than Mrs Clinton among younger people and the better-off reflecting many of the poll findings in the US.

Mr McCain's meagre support base attracts significantly more men than women - 11 per cent of men support Mr McCain compared with 4 per cent of women.

When broken down by political party, support for Mrs Clinton is highest among Fianna Fáil voters (47 per cent), followed by Fine Gael (44 per cent) and the Greens (40 per cent).

Mr Obama's support is strongest among Progressive Democrats (71 per cent), Greens (53 per cent) and Independents (44 per cent). It is lowest among Labour Party voters (32 per cent) and Fianna Fáil voters (34 per cent).

A detailed breakdown of supporters of Mrs Clinton by age shows her support is strongest among people aged 65-plus (50 per cent).

This falls steadily among younger age groups such as 50-64 (49 per cent), 35-49 (45 per cent) and 25 to 34 (33 per cent).

However, Mr Obama attracts more support than Mrs Clinton among younger people and the better off.

His support is at its strongest among the 18-24 age group (44 per cent) and 25-34 age group (42 per cent).

This support falls away dramatically among older people such as those age 50-64 (33 per cent) and 65-plus (23 per cent).

Support levels for Mr Obama are also higher among the better off. He attracts 43 per cent of all those from the more affluent ABC1 category and 33 per cent from the less well-off C2DE category.

This compares with 40 per cent and 41 per cent respectively for Mrs Clinton.

Mr McCain attracts twice as much support from men compared with women.

Eleven per cent of men say they support Mr McCain compared with 4 per cent of women.

Support for Mr McCain remains relatively steady across all ages, peaking at 9 per cent among the 25-34 age group.

Carl O'Brien

Carl O'Brien

Carl O'Brien is Education Editor of The Irish Times. He was previously chief reporter and social affairs correspondent