Clinton plays Irish card on Hillary's behalf in Queens

President Clinton has claimed his administration was the first US government to get involved in Northern Ireland, because all…

President Clinton has claimed his administration was the first US government to get involved in Northern Ireland, because all the others were afraid of damaging the special relationship with Britain.

Acknowledging the bruising effects of his intervention, he said Britain was "better off with a minor interruption to that relationship" if it led to peace in Ireland.

His audience had no problem with that. The chairman of the "Hillary 2000" Democratic rally in the New York borough of Queens on Monday night, Mr Brian McLaughlin, of the New York State Labour Council, was Irish-American. So was the president of the Queens borough Democratic Party, Mr Tom Manton, who made the main speech of welcome. In the hall there were many more who applauded his comments warmly.

Irish voters make up a key part of the pivotal, economically deprived borough of Queens, though many have in recent years moved on to richer pastures on Long Island. In swing states such as Iowa, Ohio, and Michigan they are also critically important. But is there such a thing as an Irish vote? Mr Clinton clearly thinks there is a political benefit to pushing Irish buttons, not just in Queens the other night, but in his engagement in the peace process and the unprecedented White House access granted to Irish politicos on St Patrick's Day.

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Yet the answer to the question from two of the most experienced Irish-American political activists from opposite sides of the New York political divide is "no, not any more". The nature of Irish-American identity is far more complex these days.

Irish voters, they say, are Republicans and Democrats, whose voting behaviour may be better understood as components of a larger Catholic vote. They may also be better viewed as part of a larger group that will back ethnic candidates, whether Irish, Italian or Jewish, because they can be expected to understand and champion minority ethnic concerns.

In New York some one fifth of the 2.4 million-strong Catholic archdiocese is ethnic Irish, according to a recent survey by the New York Times. But even Catholicism is not necessarily a good marker for their voting allegiance, as many are either liberal on such issues as abortion or will cast their vote on other issues, such as concern for social solidarity and welfare.

That reality is of crucial importance to Ms Hillary Clinton, whose pro-abortion stance was strongly condemned by the late Cardinal John O'Connor. Earlier this year he also berated Father Sean McManus, of the Irish National Caucus, for endorsing her candidacy because of the Clinton contribution to the peace process.

Father McManus responded that as her then opponent, Mr Rudy Giuliani, was also pro-abortion, "is it immoral for me to participate in this election at all?" Long Island Republican Congressman Peter King, on the other hand, has made abortion a key part of his programme.

Mr Pat Doherty is a a senior aide to the New York State Comptroller, Mr Alan Hevesi, tipped to be the next Democratic mayoral candidate. He points out that those of Irish ancestry, who still retain a sense of Irishness, represent almost 25 million of the US population but are by no means homogenous as a voting bloc.

At best, he believes, some 10 per cent of that number can be influenced at the margins by a specifically Irish issue, like the involvement of Mr Clinton in the peace process. Or an Irish candidacy. It's worth mentioning on the stump because it may tip a finely-balanced vote, but is by no means the key determinant of the direction of a vote. It's a bonus.

A Republican adviser to New York State Governor George Pataki - Mr Pataki is a quarter Irish and surrounded by Irish-American aides - Mr Jeffrey Cleary, runs the Ireland Chamber of Commerce in the US. He agrees with Mr Doherty and, although willing to pay generous tribute to the importance of the Clinton Northern Ireland intervention, does not think it will have much effect on Irish voters.