Clinton visit still gives hope of NI deal

There is continuing speculation that President Clinton's visit this week could break the political impasse in Northern Ireland…

There is continuing speculation that President Clinton's visit this week could break the political impasse in Northern Ireland, despite British and Irish attempts to play down expectations.

Suggesting that a deal was unlikely this week, one British source said of the Clinton visit: "It is about pushing things further forward. As always, it's the sequencing that's the problem. But the President's imminent arrival has increased the tempo, and it reminds people of the big picture."

However, some insiders clearly remain hopeful that President Clinton's presence in Belfast could provide the stimulus for enough sequencing to secure the IRA's re-engagement with the International Decommissioning Commission and the lifting of Mr David Trimble's ban on Sinn Fein participation in meetings of the North-South Ministerial Council.

There were also suggestions last night that Gen John De Chastelain, chairman of the International Commission, might be about to make another statement, as British and Irish officials continued their negotiations behind the scenes.

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And the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, is expected to resume discussions with party leaders in London in preparation for his arrival in Belfast on Wednesday.

As The Irish Times reported last week, some senior British figures have been pressing for a concrete act of IRA decommissioning. Their favoured approach would see the republicans agree literally to concrete-over weapons dumps previously seen by the International Inspectors, so putting those weapons permanently beyond use, in line with the IRA commitment of last May.

Those advocating this course argue that Mr Clinton's visit provides the opportunity for "a once and for all deal", which would break both the decommissioning deadlock and the cycle of challenges to Mr Trimble's authority at the Ulster Unionist Council. And they have been urging both governments that only a dramatic breakthrough at this stage will avert the possibility of a fresh crisis and the possible further suspension of the Northern Ireland Executive ahead of next year's British general election.

Irish sources this weekend again discounted such a possibility. However, other key players say at least a more modest agreement might be brokered this week - which could see Mr Trimble lift his ban in return for IRA agreement to discuss the modalities for decommissioning with Gen de Chastelain, and the possible extension of the numbers of dumps open for inspection.

Those pessimistic about an imminent breakthrough suggest republicans are unlikely to make concessions to Mr Trimble which might be pocketed by a reconvened Ulster Unionist Council and then declared insufficient.

But sources close to Mr Trimble have repeatedly pointed out that he has merely said his party would review its position in January, and is not committed to calling another meeting of his ruling council at any point ahead of its annual meeting in March.

The First Minister, meanwhile, has called on Mr Clinton to announce a crackdown on dissident republican groups in the United States.

Mr Trimble told the BBC's Breakfast with Frost programme: "One of the real failures by government over the last few years, ever since they were responsible for the Omagh bomb, is the failure to deal with the `Real IRA'. "