There is general agreement that Bill Clinton is not going to bring any blueprint with him on his visit to Belfast that will automatically break the current political deadlock. None the less he is known for his powers of persuasion. Key players owe him favours.
One observer drew a cross-Atlantic metaphor from the codes of rugby and American football to explain the importance of this visit. "If people are close to the line President Clinton can get them over the line, but if they are not there or thereabouts there is not a lot he can do," he said.
There is a potential package in the making that could resolve the current political deadlock by the time of President Clinton's third visit to Northern Ireland in two weeks' time. The President can provide the goodwill to create a new initiative, but the political will must come from this side of the Atlantic.
The package could involve a deal around issues such as policing, decommissioning, demilitarisation, and the lifting of David Trimble's ban on Sinn Fein ministers attending North-South Ministerial Council (NSMC) meetings. But it is up to the British and Irish governments, together with the pro-agreement parties - primarily Sinn Fein, the SDLP and the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) - to forge an agreement. Between now and mid-December, when the President returns to Northern Ireland, there will be much horse-trading.
White House officials are this week arriving in Northern Ireland to plan his schedule, which is not yet fully tied down. He is expected in England on December 12th, Northern Ireland the next day, and the Republic on December 14th.
The President is expected to visit Stormont to meet the First and Deputy First Ministers, David Trimble and Seamus Mallon. He will probably also meet leading politicians such as John Hume and Gerry Adams. Consideration is being given to his addressing the Assembly, but there is uncertainty about that proposal.
What is virtually certain is that he will make one keynote address here, where he will attempt to inject fresh impetus to a pretty sluggish political scene.
There are no guarantees of a breakthrough but the President obviously believes there is hope of progress. The White House was careful not to portray this visit as a mere presidential lap of honour in London, Belfast and Dublin. Much US homework has gone into this visit. For months Washington officials have been casting a close eye on political developments here to determine whether President Clinton should return. They believe that the President can do what he did before: reanimate politics that have been slowly grinding to a halt.
Five years ago President Clinton caught and reflected the mood for change in Northern Ireland. It was a time of much hope and energy. Now the President is visiting Northern Ireland when a lot of that passion is spent. "Things are a little passive at the moment, perhaps the President can bring fresh life into this process, perhaps he can be a catalyst for a new approach," as one insider put it last night.
Five years ago, on the eve of the President's arrival in Ireland, the then Taoiseach Mr Bruton and British Prime Minister Mr Major agreed to a twin-track initiative of political talks operating parallel to Senator George Mitchell's attempt to break the decommissioning deadlock.
Those talks ultimately led to the Belfast Agreement 17 months later, and although decommissioning is not resolved, the IRA has made a significant gesture on arms by opening dumps to the international arms inspectors and pledging in the proper "context" to put its arms beyond use Which brings us back to the matter of political will. To make progress, David Trimble and Gerry Adams in particular have to do business again. Before the visit there will be much pressure on them to strike a deal.
The big hurdle here is policing. Much pressure is falling on the SDLP to sign up to the Police Bill. It, along with the Catholic Church, is holding fire until it sees the colour of Peter Mandelson's implementation plan for the changes, despite calls from Chris Patten and fellow commission member Maurice Hayes for Catholics to join the new force.
Sinn Fein has been decidedly negative, and so far has been dismissive of suggestions that the plan might meet many of its concerns.
The British and Irish governments are still in intensive negotiations on policing. Dublin will be hoping the arrival of President Clinton would provide the necessary impetus to prompt Mr Mandelson to meet all or most of the outstanding nationalist demands on policing.
At least by the time President Clinton arrives the details of the implementation plan should be known. Were it "there or thereabouts" in terms of what nationalists require then President Clinton could be the "honest international broker" to help nationalists sign up to at least testing the Bill.
As regards Sinn Fein that seems a long shot, but anything can happen in two weeks. President Clinton has taken risks for Sinn Fein. It's probably fair to say that if Gerry Adams can deliver he will deliver.
The other elements of a package could involve a British commitment to further scale down its military presence in the North. There will also be pressure on Mr Trimble to lift his NSMC veto. As a quid pro quo this would require IRA re-engagement with the decommissioning body, and perhaps stronger commitments from the IRA that it would put its arsenals beyond use.
All sides know that any package must be sellable to the mainstream nationalist and unionist constituencies. At the time of writing that seems incredibly difficult but President Clinton comes from the land of positive thinking.
It might all fall flat, but then again he might create the missing spark. As one London insider mused last night: "The important thing that President Clinton has brought to this process all the way along is that he is genuinely committed to seeing the Belfast Agreement implemented. He doesn't talk about what can't be done, but what can be done, and right now that's just what we need."