Clock begins ticking towards potential war

The resolution is passed: what happens next? Conor O'Clery in New York looks at the inspectors' timetable

The resolution is passed: what happens next? Conor O'Clery in New York looks at the inspectors' timetable

The passing of Resolution 1441 by the UN Security Council yesterday sets the clock ticking for war if Iraq does not comply with a tough new regime of weapons inspections.

The UN Secretary-General must notify Baghdad immediately of the resolution, which is binding on Iraq. Baghdad has until next Friday to confirm "its intention to comply fully" with the resolution. If it does not give its assent in seven days, it will be immediately in "material breach" of the resolution and the stage will be set for an American-led invasion.

The resolution provides for the immediate return of weapons inspectors, with "immediate, unimpeded, unconditional and unrestricted" access to any site in Iraq above or below ground.

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Chief UN weapons inspector Mr Hans Blix said yesterday his advance team would be in Baghdad on Monday, November 18th. This team will be involved mostly with logistics - mainly securing accommodation, vehicles and telephones - and with other preparations for resuming full inspections, but some surprise checks could be done. About a dozen inspectors are to arrive a week later.

Under the resolution, inspectors from the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), as well as a nuclear team from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), have 45 days from yesterday to begin their work.

In the meantime, the government of Saddam Hussein must, within 30 days from the passing of the resolution, i.e., by December 7th, provide the inspectors with "a currently accurate, full and complete declaration" of all aspects of Iraq's programmes to develop chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles and other delivery systems.

It must list precise locations of such holdings and also of materials for civilian purposes, though these can be declared a little later. Full inspections are to resume 45 days after the passing of the resolution - by December 22nd - and the inspectors must update the Security Council on how their new inspections regime is working 60 days after that, by February 21st.

If all goes well, the inspection regime will continue well into next year. The pace of the inspections will be set by the chief UN inspectors, US Secretary of State Colin Powell said, adding he did not know "how many months they think it might take".

The resolution directs the head of UNMOVIC and IAEA "to report immediately to the council any interference by Iraq with inspection activities", as well as any failure by Iraq to comply with its disarmament obligations.

In such a case, the full 15-member Security Council would convene immediately to consider the situation. The resolution gives no timetable beyond that point. The timing of any enforcement of "serious consequences" would be a matter for the US and for Britain, co-sponsor of the resolution.

There is also no timetable for the lifting of UN sanctions on Iraq should Baghdad comply fully with the resolution.

Meanwhile, the IAEA in Vienna confirmed last night that plans were advanced for a return of UN weapons inspectors to Baghdad on November 18th, AFP reported last night.

Mr Hans Blix has said he and Mr Mohammed El-Baradei, director-general of the IAEA, would lead an advance party of up to 20 people to Iraq.

UNMOVIC officials have already visited Cyprus to set up a staging post at Larnaca, close to the international airport on the south coast, where inspectors can receive instructions and UN identity cards before entering Iraq.