Close finish likely for third seat

Roscommon-South Leitrim is a key marginal and locally the outcome is considered all to play for.

Roscommon-South Leitrim is a key marginal and locally the outcome is considered all to play for.

Roscommon was linked with South Leitrim in the redrawing of the constituencies, a factor which could influence the election result.

Leitrim voters were extremely unhappy that their county was divided in two and are expected to vote for the local candidate, irrespective of political allegiance, to ensure they have a sitting TD.

This could be of great help to Fianna Fáil's John Ellis, who might otherwise be under huge pressure to retain his seat. It just might be the factor which will deprive Roscommon-based Senator Frank Feighan of a Fine Gael seat.

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Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will battle it out for the third seat, with a close finish predicted. When Roscommon-based Independent John Kelly is added to the mix, it becomes a complex political cocktail.

The consensus is that Fianna Fáil's Michael Finneran, from Roscommon, and Fine Gael's Denis Naughten, from Athlone, will take the first two seats.

Both are impressive performers. Mr Finneran, who slowly but surely carved out his Dáil seat after a spell in the Senate, has legitimate claims to ministerial advancement if Fianna Fáil is returned to power.

Likewise, Mr Naughten can expect to see ministerial office if Fine Gael is in power. He is among those spoken of as a future party leader.

Mr Feighan was among the potentially bright general election prospects elected to the Seanad the aftermath of the Fine Gael meltdown in the 2002 election. A Boyle-based businessman, he has performed well, gaining something of a profile for himself outside of politics following his participation in an RTÉ television charity show.

But will he secure sufficient votes in his north Roscommon heartland, as well as transfers, to gain a seat? Transfers from Mr Naughten could prove crucial.

Mr Ellis, meanwhile, will be facing the same problem in his Leitrim base. He may secure some transfers from Sinn Féin's Martin Kenny, whose base is Ballinamore, Co Leitrim, but he will also be looking to the traditional diehard Fianna Fáil vote in north Roscommon.

Mr Feighan is arguing his case to voters in his home base that, if elected, he will be the local TD living in the area. It could prove an effective vote-getting move.

Meanwhile, the entry into the race of Ballaghaderreen-based John Kelly has added another dimension to the contest. A community welfare officer, he was elected to Roscommon County Council in the local elections, topping the poll with more than 1,000 first preferences. It was a major surprise, given he decided to enter the race only weeks earlier.

He is expected to poll very well in Ballaghaderreen and in Castlerea, but will he get enough elsewhere to secure a seat? The local consensus is that while Mr Kelly's chances cannot be ignored, he has significant strides to make to secure a seat.

Labour is running Hughie Baxter, while the Green Party candidate is Garreth McDaid, son of former minister and Fianna Fáil candidate in Donegal North East Dr Jim McDaid.

VERDICT FF - 2 FG - 1

LOCAL ISSUES

The future of Roscommon county hospital continues to be a major issue. A long-running source of controversy, it has prompted Fianna Fáil TD Michael Finneran to say that he was putting his political future on the line to ensure there was to be no downgrading of facilities at the hospital. Other issues include the provision of jobs, the state of the roads, rural crime and anti-social behaviour and the closure of Garda stations. Overcrowding in classrooms, the provision of recreational facilities for young people, the threat to the viability of some rural areas because of the decline in farming numbers, and planning, are also issues exercising the minds of voters.

Michael O'Regan

Michael O'Regan

Michael O’Regan is a former parliamentary correspondent of The Irish Times