Coalition will be delighted at increase in satisfaction levels

When the Dail meets next week, the Coalition Government will have reason to swagger into Leinster House on the basis of an Irish…

When the Dail meets next week, the Coalition Government will have reason to swagger into Leinster House on the basis of an Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll which suggests its return to power in the event of an election.

Fianna Fail backbenchers will be cock-a-hoop over the effectiveness of their pre-Christmas damage-limitation exercise which saw 20 of them publicly decry the terms of Charlie McCreevy's Budget and seek concessions for stay-at-home wives.

As a result of their hand-wringing and demands for change - on top of £1 billion in tax breaks - support for the party has risen by two points to 49 per cent since the last poll in November.

Growth in the satisfaction rating for the Government has been even more impressive, with a nine-point gain to 55 per cent.

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In spite of those advances, Fine Gael has managed to claw back important public support and the party emerges with its highest rating for 15 months with a gain of three points to 26 per cent.

That gain may have been partially fashioned as a result of an aggressive and effective response to the Budget, particularly where Michael Noonan was concerned.

However, the fact that rural rather than urban voters were the ones to switch allegiances would point to recent farmer unrest and the blockade of meat plants as the primary cause for the party's growing support base.

The Labour Party will be deep ly disappointed by the findings. It has dropped three points, to 11 per cent, since November and the outcome represents the worst party showing since the general election.

Having failed to wrest the initiative from Fine Gael in debating the terms of the Budget, the Labour Party appears to have been caught in a pincer movement affecting both urban and rural voters.

Farming unrest in Munster, Leinster and Connacht/Ulster has caused support to drift to Fine Gael while, in Dublin, the Green Party has made ground at its expense.

The only bright spot for Lab our was the fact that Ruairi Quinn held his public satisfaction rating of 51 per cent, while support for all the other party leaders declined.

In that regard, Mary Harney fared worst when her satisfaction rating dipped five points to 56 per cent. Bertie Ahern dropped three points to 66 per cent, but still comfortably led the political "beauty contest".

John Bruton brought up the rear with a showing of 45 per cent, down two points from last November.

Support for the Progressive Democrats dropped a single point to 3 per cent overall, but it gained marginally in Dublin where support rose from 5 to 6 per cent.

The Green Party added a point to 3 per cent overall, but it moved into fourth place in Dublin, ahead of the Progressive Democrats and Sinn Fein, with a rise of five points to 8 per cent.

Sinn Fein will be disappointed by its showing as it dropped a point to 3 per cent nationally and also gave up a point in Dublin.

As positive sentiment builds behind the Government, it still has a number of major hurdles to overcome.

The dissatisfaction level with the Budget, at 52 per cent, cannot be ignored, but a banana-skin factor will loom large in preparing the Finance Bill as Mr Mc Creevy attempts to meet public expectations without thrashing public spending arithmetic.

A similar challenge faces Joe Walsh and the Government where farmer anger and the beef sector is concerned.

As the State's largest industry, it has the potential to create serious, long-term political fallout.

Fine Gael is poised to take advantage of any handling errors but, as things stand, Fianna Fail and the Government are comfortably placed.