What will the big science topics be for 2003? The journal, Science, chooses six of the best, writes Dick Ahlstrom.
Melting ice, exotic satellites and something new to blame for climate change will be the key issues for scientific research in 2003, according to one of the world's leading science journals.
We should also watch for severe research budget cuts, more genomes including that for the chimp, and insights into why we live in a matter - rather than antimatter - universe. These will be the science areas in the news during 2003 according to the journal, Science.
Two climate-change issues come top of the list in the journal's annual look forward at research topics likely to steal headlines. The first is the great disappearing act being performed by the world's massive ice stores in Greenland and Antarctica.
"Glaciologists are scrambling to sort out which of the world's ice houses may be about to empty themselves under the onslaught of greenhouse warming," Science suggests. Mountain glaciers are clearly reducing and high-mountain tropical glaciers are likely to vanish within decades, including that on Kilimanjaro. These are but small-fry however compared to the great ice sheets blanketing Greenland and Antarctica. "Satellite-borne radar and other new geophysical tools will be monitoring the comings and goings of ice in these constantly shifting sheets, providing a better understanding of what our warmer future holds," says Science.
The second topic is the "sun-climate connection", variability in solar output as an explanation for climate change. Patterns are beginning to emerge as more research is completed into past climatic conditions and researchers are "grudgingly taking the sun seriously as a factor in climate change", the journal says.
Solar variability is being included in simulations of the past century's warming, "and the sun seems to have played a pivotal role in triggering droughts and cold snaps", the report suggests. "To gain complete respectability, sun-climate researchers are working to identify the physical link between relatively feeble solar fluctuations and climate."
A matter of a different kind, antimatter, is also likely to be a big issue, for physicists in particular, during 2003, the journal's editors believe. Last year two rival teams within the CERN laboratory near Geneva succeeded in producing cold, slow-moving antihydrogen atoms. These have a positive rather than negative electron orbiting a negative rather than positive proton.
The thing that drives the research is that all the theories suggest our universe should have equal amounts of both forms of matter, but it doesn't. The universe seems to have settled on matter, and closer scrutiny of this new, plentiful source of antimatter may help to explain why.
To these findings will be added other fresh views of our universe provided by a collection of new orbiting satellites that work "outside the glamorous optical band". Data from these "should shine in 2003", says Science. Examples include the European Space Agency's Integral mission, which will observe gamma rays and NASA's Swift explorer that will track down gamma-ray bursts.
Genomes will remain in the news, as they have for the past several years. The genetic sequence of the chimpanzee is due out soon and "may begin to reveal what makes us human", the journal suggests. The collection of genomes already extant will be mined to help expose the complexity and similarity of life's evolutionary relationships.
The M word - money - also finds its way onto the Science list. "Will 2002 be remembered as the year the good times ended?" it asks. While the wheels haven't stopped turning just yet, cutbacks are "a growing worry among scientists in developed nations as a slumping world economy could dramatically slow the growth of government and private spending on basic science", it warns.
Each year, Science also likes to take a look backwards to catalogue the top scientific discoveries of the previous 12 months. Its clear winner was the revelation that the presumed bit players in cellular biochemistry - small RNAs - were in reality the leading actors, assuming starring roles in the drama of cell function.
Small RNA molecules actually operate many of the cell's controls, keeping DNA in line, shutting down genes or modulating their activity. "Science hails these electrifying discoveries, which are prompting biologists to overhaul their vision of the cell and its evolution, as 2002's Breakthrough of the Year."