The Independent Monitoring Commission's latest report, which is to be presented to the Irish and British governments later this week, is likely to cite a reduction in IRA attacks but point to continued IRA general criminal activity.
It is unlikely however to have any major influence on the current political negotiations as it will not be able to definitively state IRA activity is at an end - the requirement the DUP is seeking before it would contemplate entering into government with Sinn Féin.
The IMC's latest report on paramilitary activity is expected to be released publicly next week after the governments have considered it, according to well-placed sources.
Based on PSNI statistics, the IMC in this report will be able to state that IRA "punishment" shootings and beatings have reduced significantly.
For instance, up to the end of September last year republicans were blamed for 52 "punishment" shootings, but to the same date this year republicans are accused of 22 such shootings.
The figure for republican beatings is less striking, but nonetheless there is also a reduction in such attacks - 34 to September last year compared to 27 this year. The statistics have further impact when compared with loyalist attacks: overall to the end of September this year there were 135 loyalist "punishment" shootings and beatings, while republicans carried out 49 such attacks.
The IMC report is certain to reflect this reduction in IRA activity, but its report is likely to be more problematic in terms of general IRA criminal activity.
The DUP and Ulster Unionists have blamed the IRA for a spate of major robberies that involved hostage-taking in recent months, and while the PSNI has refused to be specific in apportioning responsibility in each case, it said that overall "all" paramilitaries were involved.
Accordingly, as the IMC's report will be based to a considerable extent on PSNI information, the report is likely to blame the IRA for some of these robberies which yielded several million pounds for the paramilitaries.
However, neither the Irish nor British governments are pinning any great expectation on this IMC report creating the climate for the DUP and Sinn Féin to sign off on a deal. Rather, they hope that in its next paramilitary report in six months' time it will be able to say that IRA activity has ceased. In the meantime, they hope the Executive and Assembly will be reactivated.
The Irish and British governments believe that the differences between the DUP and the pro-Belfast Agreement parties over the remaining obstacles blocking agreement are narrowing and could yet be bridged.
But with a deadline for some form of resolution fast approaching, senior Dublin and London sources said they still could not predict whether the DUP would go into government with Sinn Féin based on the existing commitment said to be available from the IRA to decommission and end activity.
Senior DUP and Sinn Féin figures clashed at the weekend over decommissioning. The Sinn Féin chairman Mr Mitchel McLaughlin claimed the DUP was seeking to "humiliate" the IRA.
Sinn Féin wanted the issue of republican arms addressed and equally it wanted unionist politicians to address the continued existence and activity of loyalist paramilitary groups, instead of putting obstacles up to agreement. "Central to the DUP position, I think, would be a humiliating scenario for republicans that simply isn't going to happen," Mr McLaughlin told BBC Radio Ulster.
