A bizarre series of propaganda broadcasts on Russian television, designed to ensure support for parties allied to President Yeltsin, appear to have severely damaged the "dream-team" political alliance formed by former prime minister, Mr Yevgeny Primakov, and Moscow's mayor, Mr Yuri Luzhkov. But the Communist Party has retained an opinion poll lead over all others in the run-up to parliamentary elections later this month.
It had been expected that "Fatherland-All Russia" (OVR) with its broad appeal in Moscow and the provinces would ensure the Communists would not achieve parliamentary dominance in its third successive Duma. The latest poll, by the Russian Opinion Foundation, taken at the end of November throughout the vast Russian Federation, shows the Communist Party gaining a strong lead.
Under their lacklustre leader, Mr Gennady Zyuganov, the Communists have successfully distanced themselves from the corruption which is rampant within the power structure and look like taking more than 20 per cent when the counting of votes ends on December 20th. OVR, which is non-communist but strongly opposed to President Yeltsin had been tipped to wipe out the communist and pro-Yeltsin blocs. But according to polls Russian voters now think otherwise.
OVR have registered just 11 per cent of the vote while the pro-Yeltsin "Unity" block has overtaken them with 14 per cent and the Yabloko party under a liberal economist, Mr Grigory Yavlinsky, is on 8 per cent. One of the main reasons for OVR's disappointing figures in the polls has been a concerted campaign against them by two of the country's most important television anchormen. Sergei Dorenko of the nation-wide ORT channel and Nikolai Svanidze of the rival RTR channel have used their political analysis programmes for blatant attacks on OVR's leaders.
Some of the anti-Primakov and anti-Luzhkov propaganda has been shown, by the more independent NTV channel, to have been forged. But blood-and-guts clips on Dorenko's Sunday night show appear to have been successful. Mr Primakov's hip replacement operation has become an issue. While a routine procedure in the West, the operation has been portrayed on the Dorenko programme as a gory procedure with blood all over the screen and a message that Mr Primakov's health is not up to the job.
No mention is made of the health of President Yeltsin who had a quintuple heart bypass operation in 1996 and is currently suffering from pneumonia among other things.
There have been consistent and unsubstantiated allegations also that Primakov ordered the assassination of the Georgian president and former Soviet foreign minister, Mr Eduard Shevardnadze, and accusations have been made that Mr Luzhkov was involved in the murder of an American businessman.
In one area of the country the local authorities have become so annoyed by the propaganda campaign that dramatic measures have been taken. The autonomous republic of Bashkortostan , between the Volga and the Urals, decided to drop the two political talk shows and show western movies instead. The decisions, it should be said, was taken under pressure from the local president, Mr Murtaza Rakhimov, who is an OVR supporter.
In a move reminiscent of previous authoritarian regimes the media minister, Mr Mikhail Lesin, threatened to close down Bashkortostan's TV channels and the propaganda programmes have been reinstated.
The campaign appears to have been aimed at shifting support from OVR to minor blocs which support President Yeltsin and the Prime Minister, Mr Vladimir Putin. The result has indeed been a weakening of OVR but instead of moving towards the establishment voters appear to have shifted into the communist camp.
The shift has been so dramatic that there is now talk of a possible coalition between OVR and the Communists which could wipe out the pro-Yeltsin forces which are centred on the Unity bloc and the Union of right-wing forces under another former prime minister, Mr Sergei Kiriyenko, and which have five per cent in the latest poll.
Under Russian electoral law half of the Duma's 450 deputies are elected from party lists and the other half from single seat constituencies. To gain representation from the party-list section, parties and blocs must attain at least five per cent of the vote.
At present the major loser looks like being ultra-nationalist Mr Vladimir Zhininovky's group.
Seamus Martin can be contacted by e-mail at: seamus.martin@russia.com/