WITH Peadar Clohessy stepping down from politics on this occasion, even PD party workers in this constituency are predicting that they face a very tough struggle to retain their second seat.
Last time out, the PDs achievement in winning two seats with just over 26 per cent of the vote was a truly remarkable performance. Any loss of Mr Clohessy's personal vote will put that seat up for grabs.
The former party leader, Mr Des O'Malley, is extremely unlikely to lose his seat despite the rather unkind jokes circulating about him in Limerick. All of them strike hard at the fact that he lives in Dublin rather than in the constituency.
The real challenge faces his running mate, Eddie Creighton from Hospital, who runs a carpentry joinery business and has strong sporting connections throughout the constituency.
Fianna Fail, on the other hand, managed only one seat with nearly 31 per cent in 1992 and their determination to get the second seat is exhibited by the phenomenal work rate on the hustings by the incumbent deputy, Mr Willie O'Dea.
Mr O'Dea topped the poll last time with 10,990 votes and workers on the ground, not only from Fianna Fail, detect a swing in his favour which could bring his personal vote up over the 12,000 mark.
Such a massive first preference poll would not only help FF in the constituency, but would also give a considerably boost to Mr O'Dea's ambitions for a full Cabinet seat should his party return to government. At least some of this increase, however, could be at the expense of his party colleagues.
The second FF candidate, Mr Eddie Wade, a seasoned campaigner from Castleconnel in the rural end of the constituency, is a county councillor and has strong GAA connections. With only two FF candidates in 1992, Mr Wade got 3,637 votes, but a third candidate, Limerick solicitor, Mr Peter Power, is in the field this time and has caused friction by running a personal campaign with posters which omit the names of his running mates.
The Government parties have targeted Limerick East as a constituency in which they can gain a seat from the opposition.
The Minister for Health, Mr Noonan (FG), and Mr Jim Kemmy (Lab) are the current Government representatives in the Dail. They have strong running mates in Ms Mary Jackman (FG) and Ms Jan O'Sullivan (Lab), while Democratic Left have John Ryan, a lecturer in Limerick RTC and something of a local radio personality.
Despite the hepatitis C issue, Mr Noonan's peal record as health minister includes major improvements to Limerick Regional Hospital and this is expected to increase his personal vote, but he has never been a massive vote getter and, despite a high profile, garnered 5,437 votes in the last election.
Mr Kemmy, on the other hand, was supported by 8,262 voters, and, despite an expected nationwide drop in Labour's support, is likely to retain his seat.
Of the other Government candidates, Mr Ryan, who gained only 835 first preferences last time, will increase his vote substantially.
Extremely tight proGovernment transfers would be needed to elect Ms Jackman, Ms O'Sullivan or Mr Ryan, while a swing of any significance to Fianna Fail should be enough to get Mr Wade elected.
The big imponderable is the performance of Nora Bennis of the National Party who is expected to take votes from all others, but her chances of election are ruled out by the experts.
