The battle for the last seat in Dublin Central will be nothing short offerocious, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Reporter
Significantly redrawn by the 1998 Boundary Commission, when it was cut back to a four- seater, Dublin Central now stays north of the Liffey, stretching from the Phoenix Park on one side to Drumcondra on the other.
Following the boundary changes, the Taoiseach's 1997 running mate, outgoing Fianna Fáil TD Ms Marian McGennis, has moved across the river into Dublin South Central.
Until February, Fianna Fáil had not replaced her on the ticket, as Mr Ahern dithered between selecting Cllr Royston Brady or heeding local calls in favour of the former TD, Senator Dermot Fitzpatrick.
In the end, Senator Fitzpatrick won through, partly because, no doubt, his standing as a GP in Cabra will help to commandeer a vote that would otherwise go to Sinn Féin's Cllr Nicky Keogh.
Once jailed for weapons possession, Cllr Keogh will, if he can find transfers across the board, be challenging for the last seat against Senator Fitzpatrick and former Labour TD Senator Joe Costello.
The destination of the other three seats is reasonably predictable. According to local, unverified opinion polls, the Taoiseach could win up to 2½ quotas. Such a result, if it occurs, will be disastrous for Fianna Fáil, if personally gratifying for Mr Ahern, who has always remained in close touch with his grassroots despite his elevated rank.
Those same opinion polls indicate that Mr Ahern's transfers will drift in every direction rather than towards Senator Fitzpatrick. Tighter vote management is crucial to FF's hopes.
Nevertheless, Ms McGennis received 2,977 second preferences out of Mr Ahern's 5,026 transfers in 1997, while outgoing Independent TD Mr Tony Gregory took nearly a thousand.
If Mr Ahern's surplus is, as expected, even greater this time, it is difficult to see how Senator Fitzpatrick cannot be in the shake-up for a seat. Equally, Mr Gregory should benefit handsomely.
Nominated to the Seanad by Mr Ahern in 1997, Senator Fitzpatrick won 1,757 first preferences in the Cabra ward in the last local elections, compared to Cllr Keogh's 2,380 in the same area.
Fine Gael Deputy Leader Mr Jim Mitchell's canvassing has been badly hampered by his recent fall, in which he broke a bone in his foot. However, the experienced campaigner has been back on the hustings in recent days.Given the loss of his Ballyfermot stronghold in the boundary revision, Mr Mitchell will face a more than usually difficult task to return to the Dáil, though currently few can imagine his defeat.
Bearing in mind the expected rise in Labour Party support nationally, Senator Costello could in more normal times be looking forward to regaining the seat he once held. In 1992 he romped home with 20 per cent of the first-preference share in that year's famous "Springtide", though this vote ebbed back to 8 per cent five years later, leaving him stranded.
The competition for the left vote is particularly acute this time. Over 20 years into his Dáil career, Mr Gregory remains strong, and is put down as a near-certainty.
In the past, Sinn Féin's Dublin City Council Cllr Christy Burke took more than 2,000 first-preference votes. His successor, Cllr Keogh, will do better.
Undeniably popular in large tracts of Cabra, Cllr Keogh and the SF machine have worked hard over the past year to spread his base of support across the sprawling constituency.
Traditionally a strong working-class area, Dublin Central has changed demographically in recent years with the arrival of new, gated apartment blocks on the quays and elsewhere, home to the young and upwardly mobile. So far the newcomers have set down few roots in the community and are more likely to vote - if they vote at all - on national trends rather than on the basis of constituency slogging by the candidates.
Prediction: FF 2, FG 1, Ind 1. No change.
Tomorrow: Dublin South
1997: FF 42.83%; FG 14.51%; Lab 8.49%; GP 3.51%; SF 6.65%; WP 1.42%; Others 22.59%.
Outgoing TDs: Bertie Ahern (FF); Jim Mitchell (FG); Tony Gregory (Ind).