THE ISRAELI Prime Minister, Mr Benjamin Netanyahu, faces possible embarrassment in a parliamentary no confidence vote today, following a series of scandals and cabinet resignations in recent weeks which have fractured his right wing coalition and left him looking vulnerable.
The government and the opposition Labour Party have recalled deputies from overseas trips and holidays for what is widely expected to be a close run test of strength. Israeli analysts said the Netanyahu coalition runs a real risk of being outvoted, but may well be saved by parliamentary rules which require a no confidence vote to win an overall majority in the 120 seat Knesset in order to topple a government and force new elections.
"It seems to me the chances of mobilising a majority of more than 61 is very, very slim," said Mr Abraham Diskin, a political scientist from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.
But even if the ruling coalition survives the vote, Mr Diskin argued, it will be a much diminished force. "It is in a very, very shaky position," he said and predicted it was unlikely to survive its full term [until 2000] in its present form.
In recent weeks the winning coalition of rightwingers, religious Jews and new Russian immigrants which Mr Netanyahu marshalled in 1996 has shown clear signs of unravelling under a succession of political blows.
The Prime Minister escaped indictment in April, when a judicial inquiry found insufficient evidence to link him to an alleged plot to subvert the investigation of a rightwing coalition ally on corruption charges by appointing a loyal but unqualified attorney general, Mr Roni Bar On.
Mr Netanyahu claimed at the time to have been fully vindicated, but the investigation's final report was critical of his actions. The episode appears to have damaged his credibility in the main stream of his party, the Likud.
Tensions broke to the surface last week with the resignation of the Finance Minister, Mr Dan Meridor. His departure was ostensibly over exchange rate policy, but Mr Meridor, a powerful Likud party baron, complained he had been manoeuvred out of office because of his doubts over the Bar On affair.
Another Likud veteran, Mr Yitzhak Shamir, a former prime minister, also denounced Mr Netanyahu, telling a military radio station: "I have no faith in the man or his path", and warning that an unnamed replacement was being groomed to take over Mr Netanyahu's job.
Mr Natan Sharansky, formerly one of the Prime Minister's closest allies, has threatened to withdraw the support of his mainly Russian party, Israel B'Aliyah, because of what he described as Mr Netanyahu's broken political promises and highhanded leadership style. He described his party last week as having "one foot outside" the cabinet.
The most immediate beneficiary of the Cabinet turmoil is likely to be Mr Ariel Sharon, a hardline former general and defence minister who was forced from office 15 years ago after the massacre of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon.
Mr Sharon has been tipped by government sources as Mr Meridor's most likely replacement as Finance Minister, from where he is expected to increase funding for Jewish settlements in Palestinian areas.