The main rebel group in the Democratic Republic of Congo, left out of a peace accord last month, looks increasingly isolated and divided after its suppression of a mutiny in the eastern town of Kisangani.
Analysts predict more defections and bouts of unrest within the Rwandan-backed Congolese Rally for Democracy (RCD) and warn this could trigger heavier Rwandan involvement in Congo, further complicating efforts to end nearly four years of war.
Aid workers in Kisangani say more than 150 people were killed in reprisals - condemned by the UN - by Rwandan soldiers and RCD fighters after the May 14th mutiny. Others have put the death toll at closer to 200.
The RCD, seen by many Congolese as a puppet of the war's chief military power, Rwanda, has denied any such killings.
But the Kinshasa government, which the RCD is fighting in the jungles of eastern Congo, has asked the International Court of Justice to condemn Rwanda for human rights violations.
Kinshasa has also refused to take part in a fresh round of peace talks planned for this week in Zambian capital, Lusaka, saying it would be a waste of time.
Efforts to end the war, in which an estimated two million people have died mostly through hunger and disease, now seem to be in a more precarious state than they have for months.
Even before the unrest in the diamond city of Kisangani, peace moves were in flux following the RCD's rejection of a partial peace pact reached last month at talks in South Africa.