A constituency-by-constituency analysis of the likely outcome of this year's General Election
Wicklow
1997: FF 29.87%; FG 19.71%; Labour 13.8%; PD 3.3%; GP 2.48%;DL 9.99%; Others 20.84%.
Sitting TDs: Joe Jacob and Dick Roche (FF), Billy Timmins (FG), Liz McManus (Lab), Mildred Fox (Ind).
The selection of Nicky Kelly in the south of the county to run with Liz McManus in the north has given Labour a very good chance of winning two seats. Kelly has a very strong personal vote in Arklow and won over half a quota last time as an Independent. The only complication for Labour is the third candidate, Jimmy Shaughnessy, chairman of Wicklow County Council. His selection has bought peace from the local party organisation but opinion is divided as to whether his running will assist or retard the party's efforts.
Independent Mildred Fox is generally seen as safe as is one FF seat. There is no agreement as to whether Dick Roche or Joe Jacob is the front runner. While Jacob had an unfortunate time explaining the national emergency plan, it is not certain that this will affect the voters of Wicklow where he has built up strong loyalty.
FG's Billy Timmins may also feel the pressure, although it would be a disaster for the party not to win a seat in this five-seater with a large middle class component.
Prediction: FF 2; FG 1; Lab 1; Ind 1. No change.
Donegal South-West
1997: FF 38.04%; FG 22.97%; Lab 4.20%; GP 4.21%; Others 30.58%. Sitting TDs: Mary Coughlan (FF); Dinny McGinley (FG); Tom Gildea ( Ind)
Former Minister of State Pat 'The Cope' Gallagher's return from Brussels has livened up the constituency. His arrival should end Independent TD Tom Gildea's time in the Dail, particularly since the television deflector issue has disappeared off the agenda.
Fine Gael's Dinny McGinley will face a stiff fight from revived running mate Jim White, though the internal divisions could actually help to increase the party's share of the vote.
Prediction: FF 2, FG 1. FF gain from Ind.
Dublin North-West
1997: FF 47.04%; FG 15.6%; Lab 11.13%; GP 4.16%; DL 10.08%; WP 1.33%; Others 10.66% .
Sittings TDs: Noel Ahern and Pat Carey (FF), Roisin Shortall and Proinsias De Rossa (Lab).
This predominantly working-class constituency has dropped from four to three seats since 1997. FF's Noel Ahern, brother of the Taoiseach, topped the poll with 11,075 first preferences, exceeding the quota by 3,735 votes. His running mate, Pat Carey, took the second seat at FG's expense with over 76 per cent of his transfer. Both seats look safe, as does that of Labour's Roisin Shortall; Proinsias De Rossa is not running this time. FG's Brendan Brady is running again. Dessie Ellis is running for SF but though well-known he has not made a strong political impact.
Prediction: FF 2; Lab 1
Dublin Mid-West
This is a new three-seat constituency, broadly covering the area west of the M50 between the Naas Road and the Liffey, excluding Quarryvale and Palmerstown and including Saggart and Rathcoole. The Tanaiste and PD leader, Mary Harney, is moving there from Dublin South-West. FG is running the outgoing Dublin West TD, Austin Currie, and Senator Therese Ridge, while John Curran and Des Kelly are the two FF candidates. Ms Harney's high profile should ensure her election, with FF and FG also likely to secure seats. The Labour candidate, Joanna Tuffy, and Paul Gogarty, of the Green Party, will launch strong challenges for a seat.
Prediction: FF 1, FG 1, PD 1.
Dublin South-West
1997: FF 29.94%; FG 15.50%; Lab 9.72%; PD 13.64%; GP 3.14%; SF 8.90%; DL 12.17%; SP 4.84%; Others 2.15%.
Sitting TDs: Chris Flood and Conor Lenihan (FF); Brian Hayes (FG); Pat Rabbitte (Lab); Mary Harney (PD).
This constituency is reduced from five seats to four, but Mary Harney's move to new constituency Dublin Mid West eases the pressure. However, the retirement of FF's Chris Flood and the challenge of Sinn Fein's Sean Crowe puts FF in trouble. Crowe has had a strong presence in working class areas. Labour's Pat Rabbitte is likely to return. FG's Brian Hayes is also strong, with Conor Lenihan FF's front-runner. Crowe is likely to take the final seat ahead of FF's Charlie O'Connor.
Prediction: FF 1; FG 1; Lab 1; SF 1. SF gain from FF.
Dublin Central
1997: FF 42.83%; FG 14.51%; Lab 8.49%; GP 3.51%; SF 6.65%; WP 1.42%; Others 22.59%.
Sitting TDs: Bertie Ahern and Marian McGennis (FF); Jim Mitchell (FG); Tony Gregory (Ind).
The landscape here has significantly changed since boundary revisions were made in 1998. More than 64,000 voters from parts of Glasnevin, Drumcondra, Cabra, the North Docks and Ballybough have been added. The changes led Marian McGennis to move across the Liffey to Dublin South-Central. So far, Fianna Fail has failed to name a second candidate. Up to now Taoiseach Bertie Ahern has been noticeably poor about splitting his vote with colleagues, despite his lectures to others.
However, his determination to stay in power and the arrival of extra parts of Drumcondra should encourage him to be more generous.
Former TD Dermot Fitzpatrick and young councillor Royston Brady are still battling to be on the ticket. Sinn Fein's Nicky Keogh is running hard, though he seems more likely to scupper Labour Senator Joe Costello's chances, rather than winning himself.
Changing living patterns means that the constituency now has more younger, better-off voters than ever before, whose presence makes predictions dangerous. Tony Gregory, whose vote has been dropping, cannot afford any further losses.
Prediction: FF 2, FG 1, Ind 1. No change.
Meath
1997: FF 41.88%; FG 36.92%; Lab 6.52%; PD 2.37%;GP 1.95%; SF 3.53%; DL 1.41%; CS 1.82%; Others 3.61%.
Sitting TDs: Noel Dempsey, Mary Wallace and Johnny Brady (FF), John Bruton and John Farrelly (FG).
Labour aspires to retake its seat here with new candidate, Peter Ward. But it is the former Labour deputy and now independent councillor, Brian Fitzgerald, who is most likely to challenge the main parties. Fianna Fail did well to hold its three seats here in 1997 despite its vote falling by over three percentage points. It did this with a very even split of votes between Noel Dempsey, Mary Wallace and Johnny Brady. It may not manage this this year, and is vulnerable to a strong performance from Fitzgerald. However, Fine Gael may suffer as their front runner, John Bruton, no longer has the party leadership, so second Fine Gael deputy John Farrelly may also struggle.
Prediction: FF 2; FG 2; Ind 1. Ind gain from FF.
Dublin North
1997: FF 38.65%; FG 18.98%; Lab 13.64%; GP 13.64%; PD 3.48 %; SP 7.22%; CS 1.62%; Others 2.77 %.
Sitting TDs: GV Wright (FF); Nora Owen (FG); Sean Ryan (Lab); Trevor Sargent GP).
A target seat for FF but the party ticket has been weakened since the departure of Ray Burke. FG has its troubles here too and Nora Owen failed to win a local authority seat. Labour's Sean Ryan won the by-election caused by Burke's exit, and is likely to hold his seat. The Green Party's Trevor Sargent is likely to pick up enough transfers from lower placed candidates to return again. FF, with sitting deputy GV Wright and Senator Jim Glennon the most likely ticket, is unlikely to succeed.
Prediction: FF 1; FG 1; Lab 1; GP 1. No change
Cavan/Monaghan
1997: FF 38.44%; FG 34.67%; Lab 3.96%; SF 19.37%; CS 3.4%; Others 0.17%.
Sittings TDs: Rory O'Hanlon and Brendan Smith (FF) ; Andrew Boylan and Seymour Crawford (FG); Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin (SF).
Sinn Fein secured an historic victory here in 1997 and Mr Ó Caoláin should win again. But his claim that three locals survived the World Trade Centre attack caused serious embarrassment, since no trace of the men has ever been found. The party's decision not to run a second candidate indicates that Sinn Fein itself is less confident. FF's experienced duo are safe, as well as FG's Seymour Crawford, though Andrew Boylan could be run close by the third FG candidate, Virginia-based Cllr Paddy O'Reilly.
Prediction: FF 2, FG 2, SF 1. No change.
Dublin North-East
1997: FF 40.61%; FG18.90%;Lab 17.25%; PD 7.80%; GP 3.57%; SF 5.93%; DL 3.70%; NLP 0.42% Others 1.82%.
Sitting TDs: Michael Woods and Martin Brady (FF), Michael Joe Cosgrave (FG), and Tommy Broughan (Lab).
The constituency has lost a seat since 1997, and the most likely loser now is Fianna Fail's Martin Brady, although Fine Gael's Michael Joe Cosgrave is far from comfortable.
Fine Gael has added Sutton man Gavin Doyle to its ticket but the party will still struggle to maintain its one seat. Labour's Tommy Broughan is seen as having strengthened his position since 1997. Four outgoing TDs will be challenging for the three seats.
Prediction: FF 1; FG 1; Lab 1. FF loss.
Kerry North
1997: FF 26.31%; FG 24.29%; Labour 29.90%; SF 15.91%; NP 3.6%.
Sitting TDs: Denis Foley (FF), Jimmy Deenihan FG), Dick Spring (Lab).
This constituency is FF's worst electoral nightmare, capable of not electing any deputy for the party. Dick Spring, who is conducting a high-profile campaign to retain his seat, and Jimmy Deenihan, a close associate of FG leader Michael Noonan, seem set to retain their seats. The battle for the third seat will be between the Sinn Fein councillor, Martin Ferris, and the FF candidates, Tom McEllistrim and Senator Dan Kiely. Denis Foley, who resigned from the FF parliamentary party after it was revealed that he had an Ansbacher account, is retiring from politics. FF has been in decline in Kerry North for several years; at one time, it had over 50 per cent of the vote. However, the organisation is now bitterly divided. Mr Ferris, who got more first preference votes than Mr Foley in the last general election, has since been elected to Kerry County Council and Tralee Urban Council. His organisation has also grown considerably. He is SF's strongest contender to become their second TD.
Prediction: FG 1, Lab 1, SF 1. FF loss to SF.
Cork South-West
1997: FF 39.05%; FG 44.18%; Lab 6.75%; GP 3.49%; NP 5.12%; Others 1.41% .
Sitting TDs: Joe Walsh ( FF), PJ Sheehan and Jim O'Keeffe (FG).
For years Fianna Fail has wanted a second seat here. However, Agriculture Minister Joe Walsh's coolness towards running mates is legendary. His performance during the foot-and-mouth crisis should deliver a benefit in the polls. His colleague Senator Denis O'Donovan was not far behind last time but the gap could be too large to make up. Jim O'Keeffe should benefit from being a contender for office in a Fine Gael-led administration, while his colleague P.J.Sheehan's constituency operation has long produced results. Labour's youthful candidate, Michael McCarthy is a prospect for the future, but not this time.
Prediction: FG 2, FF 1. No change.
Galway East
1997: FF 48.60%; FG 31.17%; Lab 7.92%; PDs 7.41%; NLP 0.23%; Others 4.67 %.
Sitting TDs: Michael Kitt and Noel Treacy (FF), Paul Connaughton, Ulick Burke (FG).
Last time, FG gained an additional seat when the constituency was made a four-seater. FF and FG likely to continue to share the spoils, with two seats each.
Prediction: FF 2, FG 2. No change.
Cork North-West
1997: FF 46.5%; FG 41.12%; Labour 7.4% Others 4.97%.
Sitting TDs: Donal Moynihan and Michael Moynihan(FF); Michael Creed (FG).
A bellwether constituency, and another one of Fine Gael's targets. The party's TD, Michael Creed, should be safe with his higher profile since the change of leadership. The challenge is whether he can bring in a second FG seat.
The younger Fianna Fail candidate, Michael Moynihan, is safe. His older namesake, Donal Moynihan, will be under threat from FG's second candidate, Gerard Murphy, who may benefit from some boundary revisions. An interesting contest, but the forecast has to be the retention of the status quo.
Prediction: FF 2; FG 1. No change.
Tipperary-North
1997: FF 42.29 %; FG 11.32%; Lab 10.33%; PDs 3.48%; NP 3.24%; Others 29.35%.
Sitting TDs: Michael Smith and Michael O'Kennedy (FF), Michael Lowry (Ind).
The constituency is notable for the poll-topping performance of the former FG minister and current Independent, Michael Lowry. He is expected to head the poll again, with Mr Smith, the Minister for Defence, securing a seat. With long-serving TD and senator, Michael O'Kennedy, retiring, the battle will be on for the third seat between his replacement on the ticket, Maire Hoctor, Labour's Senator Kathleen O'Meara and Fine Gael's Noel Coonan. A successful exercise in vote management could swing it for Hoctor, but O'Meara will launch a strong challenge for the seat in a constituency where John Ryan, now retired from politics, was a long-serving Labour TD. Last time, the Fine Gael vote slumped from 28.1 per cent to 11.3 per cent, because of Mr Lowry's performance. With Mr Lowry perceived locally by many to be holding the FG seat, Mr Coonan has his work cut out for him. Ms O'Meara's share of the vote showed a Labour decline from 22.75 per cent in 1992 to 10.33 per cent in 1997. However, the electoral tide was going out for Labour then, and an improved performance could see her taking the second FF seat, with, perhaps, the help of Mr Coonan's transfers.
Prediction: FF 1, Lab 1, Ind 1. Lab gain from FF.
Kildare South
1997: FF 37.59%; FG 26.49% Lab 20.25%; PD 13.52%; Others 2.15 per cent.
Sitting TDs: Sean Power (FF), Alan Dukes (FG), and Jack Wall (Lab).
Jack Wall had more than 400 votes to spare over the second FF candidate last time. He is likely to repeat his success again.
Prediction: FF 1; FG 1; Lab 1. No change.
Wexford
1997: FF 38.95%; FG 38.58%; Lab 17.08%; GP 1.68%; DL 2.61%; Others 1.11%.
Sitting TDs: Hugh Byrne and John Browne (FF), Ivan Yates and Michael D'Arcy (FG), Brendan Howlin (Lab).
The retirement of Ivan Yates, who topped the poll in 1997, weakens FG's chances in Wexford. FG has selected former general secretary Eddie O'Reilly from Wexford town, and Enniscorthy-based Paul Kehoe to join sitting TD Michael D'Arcy on the ticket. FF recently selected the high profile Wexford hurling manager, Tony Dempsey, as their third candidate and hopes to win a third seat at FG's expense. But FG would need to drop over 4,000 votes from 1997 to lose out. Labour is still considering a second candidate to run with Brendan Howlin.
Prediction: FF 2; FG 2; Lab 1. No change.
Carlow/Kilkenny
1997: FF 42.19%; FG 29.19%; Lab15.19%;PDs5.64%;GP5.52%; NP 1.54%; Others 0.74%.
Sitting TDs: Liam Aylward and John McGuinness (FF); Phil Hogan and John Browne (FG); Seamus Pattison (Lab).
Just four of the seats are available, since the Ceann Comhairle, Seamus Pattison is automatically re-elected. John Browne's decision to quit opens up the race, though he is hoping that his son, Fergal, will replace him. FF's candidate, Senator M.J. Nolan is hoping to benefit from Carlow's belief that it is the poor relation in the constituency, while the other Carlow-based candidate, deputy leader of the Green Party, Cllr Mary White, seems to have peaked. FF's two TDs should be safe, as should Fine Gael's Phil Hogan. FG's hold on its second seat in the constituency is under serious threat, however, and will depend on Mr Hogan's ability to manage the vote. Labour's transfers will decide the final seat.
Prediction: FF3, FG1, Lab 1. FF gain from FG.
Tipperary South
1997: FF 37.28%; FG 24.09%; Lab 16.11%; NP 6.03%; Others 16.49%.
Sitting TDs: Noel Davern (FF), Tom Hayes (FG), Seamus Healy (Ind).
Tom Hayes of FG was elected in the by-election last year and Independent TD Seamus Healy in the by-election the year before. FF performed poorly in both contests. The Taoiseach's special adviser, Dr Martin Mansergh, will appear before a selection convention next Monday as a running mate for Minister of State, Noel Davern.
Prediction: FF 1, FG 1, Ind 1. No change.
Westmeath
1997: FF 45.67%; FG 25.88%; Labour 24.51%; Others 3.94%.
Sitting TDs: Mary O'Rourke (FF), Paul McGrath (FG) and Willie Penrose (Lab).
Labour's most impressive constituency operator, Willie Penrose, topped the poll in 1997 as disaster befell many of his colleagues elsewhere. He is set to do so again, but the real interest has been added by the arrival of Senator Donie Cassidy on the FF ticket to join Mary O'Rourke. FG's Paul McGrath barely held off FF's Henry Abbott last time, and there is great hope in FF of an upset this time.
Prediction: FF 2; Lab 1. FF gain from FG.
Dublin North-Central
1997: FF 46.44%; FG 26.03%; Lab 6.6%; PD 3.3%; GP 3.82%; DL 2.77%; SW 1.62%; Others 9.43%.
Sitting TDs: Ivor Callely, Sean Haughey (FF), Richard Bruton (FG), Derek McDowell (Lab).
The sitting TDs were returned here in 1997 but elected in reverse order compared to 1992. FF's Ivor Callely topped the poll, exceeding the quota by over 2,500. His surplus elected Sean Haughey. FF hq had thought that Cllr Deirdre Heney, the only woman on the ticket, might displace Haughey but this is unlikely to happen. In 1997, Labour's Derek McDowell was very lucky to hold his seat. However his profile as Finance spokesman should help. Richard Bruton's seat is safe. Ind Cllr Finian McGrath should not be overlooked.
Prediction: FF 2; FG 1; Lab 1. No change.
Clare
1997: FF 50.36%; FG 30.08%; Lab 3.59%; PDs 6.93%;GP 3.59%; NP 1.87% ; CS 1.06%; Others 2.51%.
Sitting TDs: Sile De Valera, Tony Killeen and Brendan Daly (FF); Donal Carey (FG).
An extra seat in Clare is one of the key targets for FG leader, Michael Noonan, though it is difficult to see either Senator Madeleine Taylor-Quinn or Kilrush-based Cllr Pat Breen obliging. Former FG Minister of State, Donal Carey, had to be added to the ticket by party hq after he was defeated at convention, but his difficulties should ensure an element of a sympathy vote. FF won three seats last time with just over 50% of the first preference vote. Any drop in this could leave one of their three sitting deputies exposed. Sile De Valera's time in Cabinet should help her cause, though Tony Killeen is unlikely to top the poll again. Supporters of Brendan Daly are expressing fears about his chances, but he should be able to do enough to come through. Labour's candidate, Cllr Michael Curley is likely to do little more than increase the party's share of the vote.
Prediction: FF 3, FG 1. No change.
Dublin South
1997: FF 38.62%; FG 29.09%; Lab 10.6%; PD 9.39%; GP 6.1%; SP 1.08%; NLP 0.2%; Others 4.92% .
Sitting TDs: Seamus Brennan and Tom Kitt (FF), Alan Shatter and Olivia Mitchell (FG), Liz O'Donnell (PD).
This middle-class constituency has in recent times been one of the most volatile in the State.
Labour's Eithne Fitzgerald won the highest personal vote in the State in 1992 only to lose her seat in 1997, as part of the national swing against Labour. She is running again and hopes to win a seat, and some private party polls have shown that she may threaten FG's Alan Shatter.
However, the sitting deputies, including FF's Seamus Brennan and Tom Kitt, appear to be strong.
Prediction: FF 2; FG 2; PD 1. No change.
Cork East
1997: FF 36.44%; FG 30.12%; Lab 8.13%; PDs 4.25%;SF3.56%; DL 10.73%; Others 6.77%.
Sitting TDs: Ned O'Keeffe and Michael Ahern (FF); Paul Bradford and David Stanton (FG).
Following his difficulties last year, former Minister of State, Ned O'Keeffe (right), is unlikely to top the poll again - unless a sympathy vote, emerges late. This should benefit his running mate, Michael Ahern, who has long been in Mr O'Keeffe's shadow. Paul Bradford's higher profile within FG should help him, to the detriment of fellow Mallow-based candidate, Labour's Joe Sherlock. Labour is intent on winning back the seat it held between 1992 and 1997. If there is to be a Labour gain anywhere, it could be here. Former Labour TD, John Mulvihill, has the best chance of coming through in place of FG's David Stanton.
Prediction: FF 2, FG 1, Lab 1. Labour gain from FG.
Waterford
1997: FF 35.79%; FG 24.55%; Lab 11.77%; PD 6.46%; GP 1.81%; WP 9.24%; SW 1.57%; NLP 0.33%; Others 8.48%.
Sitting TDs: Martin Cullen and Brendan Kenneally (FF), Austin Deasy (FG), Brian O'Shea (Lab).
Austin Deasy of FG is retiring but his son, John, is expected to take the seat. FF TDs Martin Cullen and Brendan Kenneally should hold their seats, and Labour's Brian O'Shea should also be safe.
Prediction: FF 2; FG 1; Lab 1. No change.
Cork South-Central
1997: FF 42.62%; FG30.57%; Lab 8.92%; PDs 4.19; Greens 6.58%; NLP 0.33%; Others 6.8%.
Sitting TDs: Mícheal Martin, Batt O'Keeffe and John Dennehy (FF); Simon Coveney and Deirdre Clune (FG).
Health Minister Michael Martin is assuming Lynch-like popularity in Cork City. His running mates, Batt O'Keeffe and John Dennehy, are geographically well placed. Fine Gael's Simon Coveney has grown in stature since he replaced his father Hugh and should be safe. His running mate Deirdre Clune, daughter of former Foreign Affairs Minister, Peter Barry, is weak, though the party has moved to shore up her position over recent months. The question is whether it has done enough, quickly enough.
Greens candidate Cllr Dan Boyle is confident that his hour has finally come but it will require a national swing to the party. If Fianna Fail can manage its votes, it should safeguard its three seats and Fine Gael should keep its two.
Prediction: FF 3, FG 2. No change.
Mayo
1997: FF 42.95%; FG 48.75%; GP 1.52%; NP 1.18%; Others 5.59%.
Sitting TDs: Tom Moffatt and Beverley Cooper-Flynn (FF), Enda Kenny, Jim Higgins and Michael Ring (FG).
This was a major FG success story in 1997, due to three remarkable individual political campaigners. It remains to be seen whether Beverley Cooper-Flynn will still be a Fianna Fail candidate in May but she would be expected to win a seat even if forced to run as an independent. FG are expected to retain the three seats in their best-performing constituency but the FF candidate, John Carty, could challenge Tom Moffatt.
Prediction: FF 2; FG 3. No change.
Longford- Roscommon
1977: FF 47.02%; FG, 36.91%; Lab 1.48%; PDs 4.84%; Others 9.75%.
Sitting TDs: Albert Reynolds and Sean Doherty (FF), Denis Naughten and Louis Belton (FG).
Two senior FF TDs are leaving the political stage in this constituency. Longford-based Albert Reynolds, a former Taoiseach, and Roscommon-based Sean Doherty, are retiring from politics, but they leave a legacy of two safe seats. Peter Kelly seems set to take Mr Reynolds's seat in Longford, while Senator Michael Finneran is likely to replace Mr Doherty in Roscommon.
Roscommon-based Fine Gael Senator John Connor will launch a strong bid for a Dail seat, which he held in the past, but if he is successful it will be at the expense of a party colleague. Hugh Baxter, of Labour, and Mae Sexton, of the PDs, are also contesting the constituency.
Prediction: FF 2, FG 2. No change.
Louth
1997: FF 40.02%; FG 27.90%; Lab 10.50%; PDs 5.32%; GP 3.12%; SF 8.11%; Others 5.04%.
Sitting TDs: Dermot Ahern, Seamus Kirk (FF), Brendan McGahon (FG), Michael Bell (Lab).
Brendan McGahon, the outspoken and colourful FG deputy is finally retiring. FG is running Senator Fergus O'Dowd, favourite to take Mr McGahon's seat, and Terry Brennan. Sinn Fein is hoping for a breakthrough with Arthur Morgan, a councillor, who could put Mr Kirk or Mr Bell under pressure. The high-profile FF minister, Dermot Ahern, is determined to keep SF out and he should succeed.
Prediction: FF 2, FG 1, Lab 1. No change.
Donegal North-East
1997: FF 41.81%; FG 18.87%; Lab 5.48%; SF 8.11%; Others 25.73%.
Sitting TDs: Jim McDaid and Cecilia Keaveney(FF); Harry Blaney ( Ind)
Minister of Sport Jim McDaid's time in Cabinet would normally be expected to be enough to safeguard his position, though his Letterkenny vote is threatened on a number of fronts. Running mate Cecilia Keaveney is favourite to top the poll. Independent Fianna Fail candidate Niall Blaney is trying to replace his father, Harry. Independent FF's legendary ability to winkle out votes will have to be repeated if the youthful candidate is to be protected.
Fine Gael's Paddy Harte lost in 1997, following internal ructions in the local organisation. This time former Labour senator Sean Maloney and Inisowen-based Bernard McGuinness are the Fine Gael hopefuls, with Maloney having the best chance of winning.
Prediction: FF 2, Ind 1. No change.
Limerick West
1997: FF 32.44 %; FG 37.19%; Lab 4.22%; PDs 4.18%; Others 21.96%.
Sitting TDs: Michael Collins (FF), Michael Finucane and Dan Neville (FG).
In the era when Michael Collins's brother, Gerard Collins, now a Munster MEP, was the local senior FF figure, two seats for the party seemed a foregone conclusion. But FG reversed that in 1997. Senator John Cregan will be attempting to win back th e second FF seat, but he has an uphill battle, given the strength of the two FG deputies icluding Dan Neville (above) and the fact that their leader, Michael Noonan, is in the adjoining Limerick East.
Prediction: FF 1, FG 2. No change.
Kerry South
1997: FF 31.79%; FG13.77%; Lab 14.05%; Others 40.39%.
Sitting TDs: John O'Donoghue (FF), Breeda Moynihan-Cronin (Lab), Jackie Healy-Rae (Ind).
This constituency was once a Fine Gael stronghold, with a safe quota, but the party's campaign to win back the seat is unlikely to succeed this time.
Prediction: FF 1, Lab 1, Ind 1. No change.
Kildare North
1997: FF 34.86%; FG 26.19%; Labour 19%; PD 6.69%; GP 4.47%; DL 8.80%.
Sitting TDs: Charlie McCreevy ( FF), Bernard Durkan (FG) and Emmet Stagg (Lab).
The PDs' newest acquisition, Ind Cllr Kate Walsh, polled twice as well as Emmet Stagg in the local elections. She is the only woman on the ticket and she will mount a credible challenge.
Prediction: FF 1; FG 1; Lab 1. No change.