East Antrim
OUTGOING MEMBERS
(first prefences votes, %)
*Roy Beggs Jr (UUP) 5,175 (16.7%)
*Sammy Wilson (DUP) 4,544 (14.7%)
George Dawson (DUP) 3,163 (10.2%)
*David Hilditch (DUP) 2,856 (9.2%)
*Seán Neeson (Alliance) 2,180 (7.0%)
*Ken Robinson (UUP) 2062 (6.7%)
*Denotes Assembly member also elected in first Assembly poll in 1998.
NATIONALIST BATTLEGROUND- SDLP candidate Danny O'Connor lost the seat he narrowly won in 1998 (by a margin of 49 votes) in 2003 by a more substantial 796. What cost him his seat, which was a breathtaking gain in 1998, was his failure to attract enough second preferences from other parties last time out.
Sinn Féin remains well behind, polling about the 800 mark, but this is enough of a split in the nationalist vote to hamper the SDLP. The vast majority of SF votes last time were transferred to O'Connor, but it was a case of too little, too late.
SDLP tactics this time will concentrate on their man tempting preference votes from others, including unionists, and he is wooing them with some solid cross-community constituency work.
UNIONIST BATTLEGROUND- The DUP's Sammy Wilson seized the Westminster seat here from UUP stalwart Roy Beggs snr in convincing fashion in 2005. This victory, coming 18 months after the DUP grasped three of the six seats in the 2003 Assembly election, seemed to suggest that the Ulster Unionists had finally been eclipsed here.
However, Ulster Unionists insist that past form does not indicate future performance and they are confident of a revival. This is in part due to differences among Paisley supporters over the basic question of whether or not to share power with Sinn Féin in a Stormont executive.
Both the Ulster Unionists and the DUP manage their vote well here, with the DUP coming in under the quota in 2003. What could upset all their sums is the late announcement of an anti-St Andrews Agreement candidate. Watch this space.
WILDCARD- The unexpected could happen in a number of areas. Watch for the Alliance performance. Party veteran Sean Neeson retained his seat in 2003 despite a significant drop (9.2 per cent) in first preferences. He could not sustain further electoral damage and hope to survive. Much will depend on the announcement, if any, of an anti-powersharing unionist. Watch out too for any sign that significant shifts in the Sinn Féin position - decommissioning, the IRA order to stand down its units, support for the PSNI - boosts its small vote to the detriment of the SDLP.
PREDICTION- To predict no change here is perhaps the safest call to make when the list of runners is clear. In advance of all candidates declaring their hand, it is sheer madness