Lagan Valley - 6 seats
OUTGOING MEMBERS (first preference votes, %)
Jeffrey Donaldson (UUP, now DUP) 14,104 (34.2% )
*Edwin Poots (DUP) 5,175 (12.5%)
*Séamus Close (Alliance) 4,408 (10.7%)
*Patricia Lewsley (SDLP) 3,133 (7.6%)
*Billy Bell (UUP) 2,782 (6.7%)
Norah Beare (UUP, now DUP) 1,508 (3.7%)
*Denotes those elected to Assembly in 1998
Quota:15%
NATIONALIST BATTLEGROUND- The SDLP did well here in 2003 to retain its sole Assembly seat against the rising Sinn Féin vote. Good council and Westminster elections since then have given Sinn Féin fresh confidence that the sole nationalist quota in this constituency is finally in its reach. A registration drive by Sinn Féin in new housing developments close to Twinbrook boosted that confidence.
The SDLP has lost its high profile incumbent, Patricia Lewsley, and her less well-known replacement, Marietta Farrell, will be hard pushed to fend off a strong challenge from Sinn Féin's Paul Butler.
The retirement of Alliance stalwart Séamus Close makes this seat very unpredictable. He attracted a considerable personal vote from both unionists and nationalists and it is anyone's guess where, if anywhere, the Alliance vote will go.
UNIONIST BATTLEGROUND- This was once the most predictable and safe Ulster Unionist constituency in Northern Ireland - but that was before Jeffrey Donaldson's defection to the Democratic Unionist Party less than a month after the 2003 Assembly election.
This transformed the seat from one where the UUP had a fighting chance of a fourth seat to one were the DUP now finds itself in that situation.
Donaldson has a massive personal vote, but the DUP will only maximise its representation here if the first preferences are shared out among the four candidates.
It is simply not known if unionist-inclined Alliance voters who opted for Séamus Close in the past will stay with the party or stray.
WILD CARD- With targeted Alliance and SDLP seats, there are too many variable factors in play to make safe predictions. The DUP could manage its vote successfully and take a fourth seat - or the Ulster Unionists could recover enough to reclaim a second.
At least one party has to take a hit at this election and the SDLP looks most likely to suffer at this stage. However, if Alliance loses out because of the retirement of its long-established candidate, Close, the votes could scatter, possibly saving the SDLP or helping to push a second Ulster Unionist over the line.