Mid-Ulster
NATIONALIST BATTLEGROUNDA stable constituency with six seats and 12 candidates, no great changes are expected here at the March 7th elections, with Sinn Féin believed likely to hold on to its three seats. As with Sinn Féin election campaigns in other constituencies, vote management is very disciplined.
Brendan McLoughlin, a former party member who disagrees with its stance on policing, is standing as an Independent, but is not seen as a threat to any of the party's three current Assembly seats in this election. Indeed, it is speculated across all parties in the constituency that disenchanted former Sinn Féin supporters are most likely not to vote.
It is also believed likely that the SDLP's Patsy McGlone will hold on to his seat. He has three offices throughout the constituency that he has continued to work well.
UNIONIST BATTLEGROUNDIf there is change in this constituency some feel it might be on this side of the political divide. There has been speculation that the DUP could take the UUP's Billy Armstrong's seat. With two DUP candidates, Ian McCrea and Elizabeth Forde, those predicating success for McCrea (son of Rev William McCrea, who is standing in South Antrim in this election) point to his performance in the 2005 general election, when he got a 10,665 vote to Armstrong's 4,853. He seems assured of election anyhow but the DUP camp in particular are confident of successfully taking the UUP seat as well. However, many see Billy Armstrong holding on. Either way, it promises to be a tight contest.
WILD CARDSThese would have to include Walter Miller of the UKUP, who is really a spoiler candidate. However, the people who share his disenchantment with the DUP are more likely not to vote at all, just as in the case of former Sinn Féin man and Independent candidate Brendan McLoughlin.
PREDICTION;Most likely three seats for Sinn Féin - Martin McGuinness, Francie Molloy, Michelle O'Neill; one seat for the SDLP, Patsy McGlone; one seat for the UUP, Billy Armstrong; and one seat for the DUP, Ian McCrea.