West Belfast
NATIONALIST BATTLEGROUND:This is the greenest constituency in Northern Ireland, indeed probably in the whole of Ireland. Sinn Féin's ambition is to take five of six seats. It currently holds four. It is running five candidates and expects all five to be successful. The scale of this ambition is matched by no other party.
Gerry Adams said at the weekend they would "definitely get four" and that it would be a "big shock" if they didn't get the fifth. He has been on door-to-door canvasses himself in the constituency, which is unusual as he tends to favour the walkabout. Should Sinn Féin take the fifth seat it can only come from the SDLP or the DUP and it seems, at first glance, the most likely casualty would be Alex Attwood of the SDLP. But not necessarily so. Diane Dodds is heavily dependent on a big turnout of her unionist support to guarantee she holds the seat. If that doesn't happen she could lose, with either Alex Attwood or a fifth Sinn Féin candidate benefiting. Attwood will also have the benefit of transfers from party colleague Margaret Walsh.
UNIONIST BATTLEGROUND:There is no battleground among unionism in this constituency. There are just two unionist candidates. They are Diane Dodds, wife of DUP North Belfast MP Nigel Dodds, and the UUP's Louis West, who realistically is not at the races. In the 2005 Westminster election Diane Dodds polled 3,652 votes, or 10.6 per cent of the vote, an increase of 4.2 per cent on her performance in 2001. In the 2003 Assembly election she took the last seat with 2,544, or 7.7 per cent of the vote. So she is a serious contender. It seems most likely she will be in a dog fight for the last seat on this occasion too. Whether she holds it depends on turnout, and some DUP supporters - here as elsewhere in Northern Ireland - disillusioned by the party's perceived current direction may not vote at all. It is also being said locally that the register of voters in the Shankill is down by as many as 1,500 votes, at least.
WILD CARDS:There are 14 candidates for six seats in this constituency and just seven can be taken seriously. Those are all five Sinn Féin candidates, Alex Attwood of the SDLP and Diane Dodds of the DUP.
The rest are "also-rans".
OUTGOING MEMBERS
Gerry Adams (SF)6199 (18.9%)
Fra McCann (SF)4263 (13.0%)
Bairbre De Brun (SF)4069 (12.4%)
Michael Ferguson (SF)3849 (11.7%)
Alex Attwood (SDLP)3667 (11.2%)
Diane Dodds (DUP)2544 (7.7%)
Quota: 15 per cent