EU: The Government believes EU leaders meeting in Brussels tomorrow night will agree to "pause" the process of ratifying the EU constitution, and the Taoiseach will suggest that this decision would prevent all member states from proceeding with referendums.
"It is looking more likely that there will be some element of a pause for reflection," a senior Government official said yesterday. "What it will mean for member states is not clear."
The Government hopes that such a pause in the ratification process would mean that no member state would proceed with attempts to ratify until after a "period of reflection".
This would mean that the Government would not have to make its own decision on whether to suspend or proceed with preparations for a referendum.
However, British Home Secretary Jack Straw suggested yesterday that, if there was a pause, each member state should decide for itself whether to proceed.
There is speculation, for example, that with a large majority of Portuguese people still in favour of the constitution, that country might proceed with a referendum.
Minister for Foreign Affairs Dermot Ahern said in Luxembourg on Monday that, once a decision was made to pause the ratification process, member states should not be free to decide whether to ratify the constitution or not.
A senior Government official yesterday repeated this view, saying the Government wanted to see "maximum coherence" within the EU on how to proceed.
The Government position remains, as the senior official said yesterday, that "the constitution is a good one" and should be ratified.
An agreement among the 25 would ease pressure to hold a referendum in Ireland, a development the Government would probably welcome, particularly after the Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll showing a greater number of Irish voters currently intending to vote No.
This result has been mirrored in other member states since the French and Dutch rejections. Recent opinion polls in Luxembourg, Denmark, Poland, Britain and the Czech Republic - all of which are committed to holding referendums - have also shown a major surge in the No vote.
The official said the Government was now particularly anxious to see the negotiations on the EU's "financial perspectives" or budget agreed at the two-day summit in Brussels which begins tomorrow night.
Although the summit is scheduled to conclude on Friday evening, there is speculation that it could continue into Saturday if agreement on the budget appears possible.
"The Taoiseach's core objective is to avoid Europe entering a period of paralysis," the senior official said yesterday. "Therefore he wants to keep other agenda items going."
The Government has a number of important interests to protect in those discussions. It is resisting a proposal that, once Romania and Bulgaria join the EU, there be no increase in the funding of the Common Agricultural Policy.
This would mean that, in order to give the farmers of those new member states their fair share of funding, the money available to others, including Ireland, would be reduced.