Contenders champ at the bit in Phoenix Park race

Fine Gael and the Labour Party will choose their presidential candidates next Tuesday

Fine Gael and the Labour Party will choose their presidential candidates next Tuesday. And on Wednesday the Fianna Fail contender will enter the fray. Between now and then there will be plenty of hugger-mugger.

Not that there hasn't been confusion and secrecy already, as the parties tried to avoid an expensive and potentially damaging contest.

Their frantic search for an agreed candidate in the dog days of summer only ended last Monday when John Hume decided that his obligations lay in Northern Ireland.

That decision brought some small certainty to the situation. Fine Gael knew that its candidate would be either Mary Banotti or Avril Doyle. Outside of that, all was opaque.

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The Fianna Fail leadership appeared determined to nominate anyone but Albert Reynolds. And when Mr Hume dropped out of the frame, attempts were immediately made by senior officials to draft Ray MacSharry, the former European commissioner and MEP.

Up to last evening, Mr MacSharry was hanging tough; considering all the pleas and representations tumbling out of Leinster House and Mount Street, but making no commitment. But then, a public pledge of support by James McDaid, Minister for Tourism, Sport and Recreation, flushed him out. He would not stand.

Mr MacSharry regretfully declined the honour being offered by the Donegal Minister and declared that he intended to remain a private citizen.

The fact that Mr MacSharry endorsed the candidature of Mr Reynolds some months ago may explain his final decision. As a successful businessmen, he would have had to embrace a totally different lifestyle. And he had always indicated that he would leave politics at an early age.

His decision has caused serious problems for the Fianna Fail leadership. During the week, the Taoiseach hoped all nominations would be in by Saturday. But that doesn't mean that a nomination cut-off point exists.

Given Mr MacSharry's decision, there is now the chance of a last-minute nomination from within the parliamentary party on Wednesday. That is how desperate the anti-Albert forces are.

They argue that the former Taoiseach and party leader stands a very good chance of losing Fianna Fail the election in a climate of tribunals and investigations into old political controversies. And they couldn't abide the notion of Fianna Fail losing a second presidential election in a row: it would be a sign of long-term decline.

That's not all. It is a racing certainty that the Progressive Democrats would not support the man who broke up with them in government in 1992 and called Dessie O'Malley a liar. Mr Ahern and Mary Harney do not need that kind of vitriol to poison the workings of their coalition Government.

That's why Michael O'Kennedy has been slogging away for a nomination within the parliamentary party; setting out his stall and emphasising his legal expertise and international experience. There is no question of Mr O'Kennedy withdrawing in favour of anyone at this stage. It's down to the wire.

The emergence of Mary McAleese as a candidate in midweek caused something of a surprise. But the refusal of Maire Geoghegan-Quinn to run had opened the door to another woman. And, as far as the anti-Albert organisers are concerned, the more candidates in the race, the better.

As of now, however, and despite all the obstacles placed in his path, Mr Reynolds must be regarded as the front-runner. He has canvassed heavily for the past number of months and, while he has serious enemies within the parliamentary party, he also has a sizeable number of supporters. He may be unstoppable.

There is a straightforward race in Fine Gael between Mary Banotti and Avril Doyle. And the balance has been tilting in favour of Ms Doyle in recent days.

Ms Banotti's attempt to secure the nomination in a pre-emptive strike last July failed following a backbench revolt. Two days were allowed for nominations and ratification. This was seen as a readyup, organised by her sister, Nora Owen, and supported by John Bruton. And when Ms Doyle put her name forward she was stoutly supported by Alan Dukes and Ivan Yates.

Within days of Fine Gael deciding to postpone its selection process until September, overtures were being made to Mr Hume by the two major parties.

Ms Banotti has a strong Dublin base, having being elected on three occasions as an MEP. Ms Doyle has a largely rural political background, is better known to members of the parliamentary party and spoke impressively during their head-to-head presentation last Thursday.

The election process will take place in Dublin next Tuesday and, with neither the Dail nor Seanad sitting, a handful of votes may decide the issue. Out of an electorate of 74 TDs, senators and MEPs, as many as eight may not turn up.

Hugger-mugger is also the name of the game within the Labour Party. Having nominated Mary Robinson in 1990, supporters looked to Dick Spring to find another sensation. But phenomena don't grow on trees. Especially after suffering a disastrous defeat in the general election.

Michael D. Higgins indicated his willingness to stand. But, while the former minister for the arts and the Gaeltacht would attract a liberal/left-wing vote and could do well, the possible loss of yet another Dail seat dismayed the party planners.

Last night the search was still going on for a candidate with that elusive magic that attracts middleclass support and cross-party votes.

A spokesman was "reasonably confident" that a candidate with the required wizardry will be proposed by Mr Spring to Tuesday's meeting of the parliamentary party. But he declined to name a name.

Hugger-mugger will be with us for some days yet. After that, an intensive six-week election campaign will give us a new president. The people decide on October 30th.