Council profile/Cork city: For a city with an expanding and changing population, the political make up of Cork City Council has remained remarkably consistent. Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour have dominated the council for 25 years and shared out the mayoralty in five-year pacts.
This year Fianna Fáil - which has 12 seats on the council - is running 15 candidates, with some party sources privately admitting that the best case scenario for the party is to hold what it has.
Fine Gael's ambitions are set only slightly higher. The party - which is running 12 candidates - may gain a couple of seats but it could lose one or possibly two.
For Labour, running seven candidates, a gain of one is the most realistic extent of its ambitions, and the Progressive Democrats will certainly hold one and possibly both of its two seats.
Sinn Féin and the Green Party are fielding candidates in each ward. Both parties have one seat on the council and further gains are possible. However, four of its six candidates are first-timers without a high political profile.
Health and hospital waiting lists may affect Fianna Fáil and to a lesser extent the PDs but at least some FF candidates seem to be distancing themselves, with party allegiance reduced to the small print on posters.
Immigration - which fuelled much comment in the last general election - seems to have abated as an issue and certainly no one is exploiting concerns about the concentration of asylum-seekers in certain parts of the city in the manner that some candidates did in 2002.
In Cork North East ward, which includes Mayfield, most pundits agree that Fianna Fáil's Tim Brosnan, the PDs' Máirín Quill and Labour's John Kelleher will be elected, with Cllr Kelleher possibly having a surplus. Fine Gael's Dara Murphy or Derek Connolly should also take a seat but the final seat could be a dogfight. Cllr Ernie Nelson (FF), who was co-opted to replace Billy Kelleher TD, faces a stiff contest, with some predicting that either Ted Tynan of the Workers Party or the Greens' Philip Jones could spring a surprise.
In 1999 Cork North Central was dubbed "the ward of death", with so many sitting TDs such as Bernard Allen, Noel O'Flynn and Kathleen Lynch bidding for seats along with former Labour Lord Mayor Joe O'Callaghan, Deputy Dan Wallace's son, Damian, and Independent Cllr Con O'Leary. The Dáil deputies all have stood down while Cllr O'Leary is retiring. Mr O'Callaghan, who failed to win a seat in 1999, has since left Labour, joining Fine Gael where he is running with Cllr Patricia Gosch who replaced Deputy Allen.
What seems certain is that Fianna Fáil will win two seats through Noel O'Flynn's son, Gary, and Cllr Damian Wallace with Labour 's Catherine Clancy - a sister-in-law of Kathleen Lynch - looking a better bet than running mate Suzanne Mullins.
After that, it begins to get interesting, with Mr O'Callaghan, who has the backing of former Fine Gael TD Liam Burke, and Cllr Gosch both vying to be ahead on the first count. Both could be elected but several political sources are tipping Socialist Party activist Mick Barry to take the final seat.
Cork North West - which encompasses Hollyhill and Knocknaheeny - is perhaps more predictable with outgoing councillors Dave McCarthy of Fianna Fáil, Colm Burke of Fine Gael (the current Lord Mayor), Labour's Cllr Mick O'Connell and Sinn Féin's sole representative, Cllr Jonathan O'Brien, all expected to be returned. Fianna Fáil's decision to add community activist Tony Fitzgerald to the ticket was controversial but the matter seems to have been resolved and the final seat will probably be between him and running mate Tony O'Neill.
Cork South East is the only six-seater and here Fianna Fáil's Terry Shannon, who topped the poll in 1999, and Fine Gael's Deirdre Clune should be elected comfortably. Cllr Donal Counihan and Cllr Jim Corr should make it two apiece for the larger parties before matters start to get interesting. Green Party Euro hopeful, Chris O'Leary, was co-opted to replace Dan Boyle. His profile in Mahon, where he lives, and his Euro campaign should help him.
It will be a tough battle for the last two seats, with Labour Cllr Denis O'Flynn, who was co-opted to replace his brother, Joe, and Cllr Theresa O'Brien of the PDs, co-opted to replace Senator John Minihan, also vying for seats. Some Fianna Fáilers have hopes of a third seat through Sean Hourihan but it looks a rather ambitious prospect.
In South Central, Labour should pick up a seat through Ciaran Lynch, a brother -in law of Deputy Kathleen Lynch. Independent Alderman Con O'Connell and Micheál Martin's brother, Seán, look like being the front runners here, with Fianna Fáil's Cllr Tom O'Driscoll also likely to take a seat. Fine Gael is running just one candidate, Cllr Denis "Dino" Cregan, a former senator. Although he is facing a strong challenge from both Mary Ryder of the Greens and Sinn Féin newcomer Fiona Kerins, Cllr Cregan is a seasoned campaigner.
In Cork South West, Fianna Fáil will win two seats through Fergal Dennehy, whose father, John, is a TD for the constituency, and Cllr Mary Shields. Fine Gael will certainly win one seat but as in Cork North Central, much will depend on whether outgoing councillor Brian Bermingham or first-time candidate Jerry Buttimer is ahead on the first count. Labour's Michael Ahern should retain his seat while much attention will focus on Sinn Féin's Henry Cremin who polled well in 1999. The Greens have former independent councillor, Patrick Murray.
