JORDAN: Whatever the rhetoric, the Arab states surrounding Iraq are all likely to support - or at least acquiesce in - US-led military action against Saddam Hussein. Lara Marlowe reports from Amman
On my large, fold-out map of the Middle East, Iraq is coloured light tan, like sand. It seems to jump out from the centre of the region, as it must in countless White House and Pentagon offices.
During a flight to the Jordanian capital a few days ago, I had a long look at the countries surrounding Saddam Hussein, and realised how isolated he is in Baghdad.
Though all leaders in the region except Ariel Sharon say they oppose military intervention in Iraq, not one is in a position to say no to the US.
Start with Egypt. Cairo is a huge recipient of US assistance - $2 billioannually. Whatever the temperature of Arab popular opinion, President Hosni Mubarak is not about to deny US forces access to the Suez Canal or Egyptian airspace.
Going clockwise on the map, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has made it clear that he intends to retaliate if Iraq attacks Israel. In the last Gulf war in 1991, Saddam Hussein's forces fired 39 Scud missiles at the Jewish state. Bush senior persuaded the Israelis to hold fire; Bush junior says: "Israel has a right to defend itself."
One of the worst nightmares of the coming war would be the use of chemical or nuclear weapons by Israel.
Syria, and its client state Lebanon, would not participate in a war against Iraq, but Syria co-operates actively with the US in hunting down al-Qaeda members, and would not lift a finger to defend what was for decades the rival Ba'athist regime.
Turkey is the only NATO member of the region. While Ankara has so far refrained from offering the US its airbases or territory in a war with Iraq, it also would have a hard time saying no.
Washington has exerted huge pressure on the EU to accept Turkey's candidacy. It's a tacit understandings: "You help us overthrow Saddam Hussein, and we'll make sure they let you join Europe."
Iran is the only other "rogue state" in the region, but it is too threatened by internal unrest to take a stand in any new Gulf war - not that Saddam Hussein's 1980 invasion of Iran, and the terrible eight-year war which followed, would make it want to.
Jumping across the Gulf, we come to the little sheikhdoms of Oman, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait.
All are home to US military bases: Bahrain hosts the regional headquarters of the Fifth Fleet, and Qatar - at safer range from Iraq than Kuwait - is headquarters to the US Middle East commander, Gen Tommy Franks.
Kuwait is risking most. Just yesterday, following Dr Hans Blix's exposé of failings in Iraq's compliance with UNSC resolution 1441, the Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister, Mr Tariq Aziz, rashly threatened Kuwait if a US attack came from there.
Saudi Arabia, which was the main staging ground for the war prompted by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, has been reluctant this time around.
Riyadh insists it will not participate, but is bound to the US by a defence treaty and admits it would let Washington use Saudi airspace, especially if intervention had UN approval.
Jordan is the last plank in the US-built fence around Iraq. In 1991, the late King Hussein was, with Yasser Arafat, the only Arab leader to support Saddam Hussein.
The Gulf sheikhdoms and Washington ostracised both, until Arafat temporarily redeemed himself by signing the Oslo Accords. The demonisation of King Hussein was as virulent as the eulogies were sticky-sweet when he died in 1999. In the meantime, he'd signed a peace treaty with Israel.
Today, the Palestinians are fighting for survival, and Jordan is ruled by the young, half-English King Abdallah II. Jordan's trade with Iraq is equivalent to what it receives in US assistance, and the Hashemite Kingdom knows it will suffer economically from any Gulf war.
But this time - though the case against Iraq is weaker - it is out of the question that Jordan would support Iraq. In hushed tones, and looking over their shoulders, cynical Jordanians say King Abdallah II has hawked his country in exchange for US legitimation of his reign.
Far from weakening the Kingdom, as it is believed in the West, Jordanians say King Hussein's 1991 stand united his people. "If he hadn't supported Iraq he could never have sold peace with Israel three years later," a Jordanian journalist told me.
Today, four years after Hussein's death, his subjects feel orphaned. "His son hasn't really connected with the people," the same journalist confided. "He and Queen Rania are more concerned about their image in the West than at home."
I went back to my hotel and turned on the television and there was King Abdallah II talking to the BBC in Davos. It would take a miracle to prevent a Gulf war now, the Jordanian monarch said.
On that much, he and his people agree.