PAKISTAN:Pakistan's supreme court kept Gen Pervez Musharraf on tenterhooks yesterday by allowing him to contest today's presidential election but denying him a widely expected victory.
The court ruled that no winner of the vote by Pakistan's parliamentarians could be declared until after a challenge to Gen Musharraf's candidacy has been heard later this month, keeping alive the possibility that he could be disqualified.
The surprise ruling injected fresh confusion into Gen Musharraf's political future and clouded the prospect of a powersharing deal with Benazir Bhutto, the leader of the Pakistan People's party. "The government must be very frustrated and angered. This means more uncertainty in the country," said Najam Sethi, editor of the Daily Times.
The vote presents no problem to Gen Musharraf - his party has a majority in the national and regional assemblies that will choose the next president. Shaukat Aziz, the prime minister, predicted the vote would "proceed unhindered".
But Gen Musharraf needs the support of Ms Bhutto with whom long-running negotiations are finally bearing fruit.
Yesterday he enacted a presidential ordinance giving immunity to Ms Bhutto and her husband Asif Zardari from corruption charges that have dogged them for a decade. In so doing Gen Musharraf paved the way for Ms Bhutto's return to Pakistan on October 18th, and opened the possibility of a powersharing deal after general elections due by mid-January.
Some analysts said yesterday's ruling would only postpone the inevitability of another five-year term for Gen Musharraf. "I think the writing is slowly and surely on the wall," said Abbas Nasir, editor of Dawn newspaper.
But others felt it could still pose a threat to his plans. "This takes Gen Musharraf as far as the election but no further," said Talat Hussain, a television commentator. Gen Musharraf's popularity has plunged this year due to rising food prices, his alliance with America and rising Islamist violence, and his party is expected to perform poorly at the polls. The US and Britain are quietly pushing him to ally with Ms Bhutto, thinking it offers stability in a nuclear-armed country where al-Qaeda has sanctuary. But many Pakistani commentators say the manipulations needed to keep a military leader in power are only deepening the country's political crisis.
Gen Musharraf has promised to resign as army chief before November 15th if he is re-elected.
In an interview this week he said he was "not feeling vulnerable". Ms Bhutto is also exposed and says she needs further concessions, in particular the dilution of the president's powers, before she will join government. The "national reconciliation" ordinance introduced yesterday quashes corruption cases against all politicians dating from 1986 to 1999, including Ms Bhutto's two terms as prime ministers. The ordinance also contained safeguards against rigging during the forthcoming general election.
The supreme court will start hearing the latest challenge on October 17th. Musharraf officials have hinted that the military ruler, who came to power in a bloodless coup eight year ago, will resort to martial law if the court opposes an extension of his rule.
"Musharraf has let it be known that he will resort to a swift and surgical strike if anyone puts up a roadblock. Whether it be for 10 days or three months, he will put the judges away," said Mr Sethi.