ANALYSIS:The poll boost for FF from the Brian Cowen honeymoon period may prove to be shortlived, writes DAMIAN LOSCHER.
THE LATEST Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll suggests the appointment of Brian Cowen as Taoiseach has provided a substantial electoral boost for Fianna Fáil, with support up eight percentage points to 42 per cent, equalling the party's performance in the 2007 general election. Satisfaction with the performance of the Government has also climbed, up to 48 per cent, representing a gain of 13 points.
The intense media coverage which Fianna Fáil has enjoyed in recent weeks appears to have cast a long shadow over the other parties, with falls in support registered for Fine Gael (five points lower), the Green Party (two points lower), Sinn Féin (two points lower) and the PDs (two points lower). Labour, on the other hand, managed to swim against the Fianna Fáil media tide, rebounding to 15 per cent, an increase of three percentage points since our January poll.
This very strong poll performance for Fianna Fáil runs contrary to the outlook for our economy. First we had dark economic clouds, now we have showers, but Fianna Fáil is managing to stay dry. There can be little doubt that Brian Cowen's appointment has created a feel-good factor which has distracted voters from news of job losses and store closures which otherwise would have acted as a drag on support for Fianna Fáil. The almost carnival atmosphere created everywhere the new leader went last week served to confirm how capable he is of energising his party and the public.
Naturally, comparisons will be made between Brian Cowen and Bertie Ahern around their capacity to attract voter support through the power of personality. By examining leader satisfaction ratings we can get a sense of how the leaders compare, with the caveat that it is very early in Brian Cowen's reign to be drawing too many conclusions on the basis of such comparisons.
This latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday of this week, in the immediate aftermath of the Cowen celebrations. It shows satisfaction with the performance of our new Taoiseach at 52 per cent, with just 11 per cent dissatisfied and 37 per cent of voters still undecided. A rating of 52per cent places Brian Cowen at the top of the current leader satisfaction table, but still some way adrift of Bertie Ahern who achieved a rating of 73 per cent on his becoming taoiseach in 1997, peaking at 84 per cent a year later.
Whether these Ahern highs can ever be achieved by Brian Cowen is debatable, if for no other reason than that the economy is unlikely to be as kind to Cowen as it was to Ahern. If Cowen is ever to be as universally popular as Ahern, he will need to convince the undecideds of his credentials, the majority of whom are Fine Gael and Labour voters. Strict loyalty to the Fianna Fáil cause is not likely to endear him to these undecided voters.
All in all, the resignation of Bertie Ahern appears to have been timely. The majority of voters (70 per cent), including the majority of Fianna Fáil voters (62 per cent), are of the view that he was right to resign. Also, the signs were that public confidence was unlikely to be restored in the short term as most voters (65 per cent) also believe he still has questions to answer about his personal finances.
Fianna Fáil's partners in Government - the Green Party and the PDs - have fared less well in today's poll.
Fianna Fáil's gain may have been at their expense, with Green Party support dropping two points to 4 per cent and the PDs attracting just 1 per cent of first preference votes, also down two points.
There are no obvious reasons why the Green Party would have dropped two points in our poll, except that Fianna Fáil has been capturing the lion's share of media coverage of late, unless differences of opinion within the party over whether to support or oppose the Lisbon Treaty caused some Green voters to switch. If the drop in Green Party support is tied to the Fianna Fáil bounce, it would be reasonable to expect a recovery when the dust settles.
Ciarán Cannon and the PDs have an uphill task ahead. Having only recently been elected to the position of party leader, he has yet to establish a strong presence, with 72 per cent of voters unable to express an opinion on his performance to date.
Having enjoyed a lift in support post the 2007 general election, Fine Gael has drifted lower, dropping five points to land on 26 per cent of first-preference votes. Once again we cannot draw any firm conclusions from this drop in support on the basis that a rebound is entirely possible if the Cowen honeymoon ends abruptly.
Enda Kenny's approval rating has slipped, moving two points lower to 39 per cent, his lowest rating since 2005.
The Labour Party will be buoyed by these latest findings. The upswing that the party enjoyed immediately after the election of Eamon Gilmore as leader looks like being consolidated.
Having fallen to 12 per cent in the interim poll, Labour is back to 15 per cent of first preference votes.
For the Labour Party leader himself, the trend is also upwards. While not yet as popular a leader as Pat Rabbitte, Eamon Gilmore is growing in stature all the time. Satisfaction with his performance is up four points to 40 per cent, placing him ahead of Enda Kenny for the first time.
If this is the start of something for Labour, the party should be asking themselves, where to next. Over the past 10 years, Labour has lost support among younger voters while at the same time it has become more appealing to older voters. But perhaps even more fascinating is the middle-class bias that has emerged; in today's poll, Labour achieves a higher level of support from middle-class voters than from working-class voters.
The race to win the hearts of the middle class is being hotly contested. Labour is not alone in attracting more support from affluent segments of the electorate. Fine Gael, the Greens and the PDs all appeal more to the upwardly mobile. Critically, the middle class will become increasingly important in determining the outcome of elections as our educated baby boomers progress to the pre-family stage of life and begin to realise that their hopes of working less, living longer and having more than their parents may not be realised. Addressing these frustrations will hold the key to unlocking the middle-class vote in future years.
In contrast, Sinn Féin is firmly focused on winning the working-class vote, presenting an alternative position to voters on the Lisbon Treaty. Its decision to campaign for a No vote is allowing the party to maintain a strong media presence, but this coverage has failed to translate into votes, with Sinn Féin down to 6 per cent support, a drop of two points since the start of the year.
At 48 per cent, Gerry Adams's performance rating is unchanged.
Arguably, recent events represent a turning point in Irish politics. Once the Lisbon Treaty hurdle has been jumped, the perfect economic storm which many commentators have predicted will present the first significant test of Brian Cowen's leadership.
In response to a radically changed set of economic circumstances, new ideas and a new direction will be expected from our new Taoiseach.
Damian Loscher is managing director of TNS mrbi