TAOISEACH Brian Cowen is to take soundings within Fianna Fáil next month on the timing of the Dublin South byelection.
The vacancy was created by the death last month of former minister and long-serving TD Séamus Brennan. It is likely to be Mr Cowen's first constituency test as Taoiseach.
Statistically, Mr Cowen and Fianna Fáil will be up against it given that no party serving in government has won a byelection since Fianna Fáil's Noel Treacy won the Galway East byelection when his party was in power in 1982.
There is speculation that it might be held on the same day as the local and European elections in the summer of next year.
However, that possible strategy might change if Mr Brennan's son, Shay Brennan, a bank executive, decides to put his name forward and secures the nomination.
In those circumstances Fianna Fáil might be encouraged to move the writ well before next summer's elections to capitalise on the esteem in which Dublin South voters held Séamus Brennan as their local representative.
In last year's general election Mr Brennan topped the poll with 13,373 first preferences and was elected on the first count.
It is understood that Shay Brennan has not yet decided whether he is interested in seeking the nomination. The other TDs for the constituency are Fianna Fáil's Tom Kitt, Fine Gael's Olivia Mitchell and Alan Shatter, and Green Party Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources Eamon Ryan. Mr Kitt, a former minister of state and Government chief whip, has indicated that he will stand down at the next general election.
Senator Maria Corrigan, who has contested two general elections in the constituency, is certain to seek the nomination. Last time she polled 3,438 first preferences and had accumulated 7,656 votes when Mr Shatter, with 10,805 votes, took the last seat on the ninth count.
With Mr Kitt standing down next time, Ms Corrigan is a strong favourite to take a Dáil seat.
Others who may contest the nomination include councillors John Lahart, a former adviser to Mr Kitt when he was a minister of state, and Gerry Horkan.
Fine Gael and Labour are likely to exert Dáil pressure on Mr Cowen to move the writ when the House returns after the summer recess at the end of next month. They will see it as an opportunity to capitalise on public dissatisfaction with the downturn in the economy. The frontrunner for the Fine Gael nomination is Cllr Jim O'Leary, the party's third candidate in the general election. He polled 2,897 first preferences.
The battle for the Labour nomination will be between Senator Alex White and Cllr Aidan Culhane, both of whom ran in the general election. Mr White, who is likely to have the edge as a member of the Oireachtas, polled 3,575 first preferences and Mr Culhane 2,809.
Green Party councillors who may seek a nomination are Ciarán Fallon, Tom Kivlehan, Tony McDermott and Dorothy Corrigan. Mr Fallon would appear to be the frontrunner.
It is expected that Senator Fiona O'Malley, who lost her seat in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown in the general election, is expected to contest the byelection for the PDs.
Sinn Féin is also expected to field a candidate.
