The number of people dying on Ireland’s roads is on the rise again.
Provisional figures suggest that the number will rise by just shy of a quarter on last year, while the number of collisions has risen by 20 per cent.
This week, the toll for 2016 equalled that for all of 2015 – leaving 162 people dead.
Thirty more will likely die before the end of the year – even more if Christmas socialising and bad winter combine to worsen road conditions.
Two questions arise: why are the numbers going up again and, given that they are, can they be stopped or even rolled back?
Is it possible, perhaps, that Ireland has reached "peak road safety" – that between 160 and 200 fatalities a year is simply as good as we can do?
To some extent, the designers and engineers who build and maintain our roads, the gardaí who patrol them, the first responders and medical services that react when things go wrong, and the Road Safety Authority (RSA) are victims of their own success.
In 1972, a staggering 640 people died on Irish roads. Numbers declined steadily, though not uniformly, afterwards, standing at 396 in 2005 when mandatory alcohol testing was introduced.
Together with RSA-led information campaigns, speed cameras and tougher enforcement the numbers fell dramatically.
In June, the European Transport Safety Council's latest index placed Ireland in the top three behind Norway and Estonia for its success in cutting road deaths.
In population terms, Ireland now lags behind only the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Sweden and Austria.
Ireland, says the RSA, should aim for a ratio of 25 deaths per million of population by 2020 – which would mean that 124 could be expected to die, together with about 330 serious injuries.
Opposite direction
So why are the stats going in the opposite direction for three out of the past four years?
So far, there are indicators, but not definitive answers. An improving economy is one.
Unemployment has fallen steadily since 2015, says Moyagh Murdock, the RSA's chief executive. Road crashes have increased steadily in the same period.
The RSA's head of research, Velma Burns, agrees. "There does appear to be an inverse relationship as, over time: unemployment goes down, fatalities go up," she says.
“The other stand-out fact,” says Murdock, “is that it’s a male phenomenon, a young male phenomenon: they’re now in a van [instead of being out of work], maybe a company van, and they’re on the road again and they’re in that high-risk group.
“White-van-man is more prone to speeding and using a mobile phone, scrolling for information, while driving.”
Each day brings its own dangers. The number of deaths on all days, with the exception of Fridays, is in the low to high 20s, from 20 on Mondays to 28 on Sundays. Curiously, 13 people have died on Fridays, so far.
Driving licence applications are up, too: from 152,078 in 2015 to 164,204 so far this year
"[The evidence for this is] anecdotal at the moment," says Murdock, "but all that extra commuting from Longford and on to the M50 must be having an effect."
Three-quarters of those who die are men. Predictably, the largest single group are men aged 26 to 35. Last year, 20 of them were killed. So far this year, the number stands at 36.
Take risks
Meanwhile, younger drivers are more willing to take risks. An RSA survey in January showed 7 per cent of under- 24 year olds admitting to drink-driving in 2015, double the figure for 2014.
In Ireland, alcohol contributes to 38 per cent of crashes. In Sweden, the figure is just 5 per cent.
Another persistent factor in the minds of Irish road users, perhaps the major factor, is a belief that they will not be caught.
"If there's a likelihood of not getting caught, a small proportion of people will revert to bad behaviour," says Michael Rowland, director of road safety.
And they may not be. In 2009, the Garda Traffic Corps had 1,200 officers.
By last September, it was down to 668. In 2015, between 13,088 and 21,500 fixed penalty notices for speeding were given out monthly. In the year to August, the numbers had fallen to between 11,497 and 16,349 monthly.
Fewer than 10 per cent of Irish road users, according to an EU survey, believe they have a high chance of being tested for alcohol, compared with 18 per cent across the EU.
One-quarter of Irish drivers believe they will be checked for speeding, compared with an EU average of 36 per cent.
And so it goes. In every category – wearing seatbelts, using illegal drugs, or being breath tested – Irish drivers believe that no-one is looking at them.
However, the 25 deaths per million target remains the goal. How can it be done?
“By chipping away at the killer behaviours,” says Velma Burns, “by chipping away.”
